Whether It’s Jasmine-Mania or Fantasy Football, Let’s Not Let Politics Divide Us

The Senate race is heating up, but the infighting doesn’t have to.

Somewhere on the interwebs, there’s a video of Jasmine Crockett floating around where the commentator asked her about the Senate race, and she said, “I’m closer to a yes than I am a no.” Boy, oh boy, does that have everyone abuzz. Some, even spreading fake news that she claimed she’s DEFINITELY running.

But what’s even more maddening is the stream of people on multiple social media platforms (some who don’t even live in Texas) are pushing narratives that James Talarico and Colin Allred should either drop out of the race, or switch races. See, ever since Joaquin Castro talked about all the heavy-hitters running as a slate at TribFest, I think some Democrats have got it in their mind that’s still a possibility.

After something like the 20th post of someone saying, “Talarico should just drop out and support Jasmine,” I lost it.

Further reading: It’s Election Season, So Suddenly Everyone Is A F*cking Expert In Texas Politics

I told the person, who I later found out was very friendly, that Talarico has already hit record-breaking numbers. His polling numbers show he can win the Senate race. And why should he drop out because you like Crockett better? I may have finished it with “This isn’t fantasy football, honey.”

Yes, it was condescending. Yes, I was called out for being condescending. And I apologized, because I wasn’t trying to be an asshole, but I was frustrated with the premise that Talarico should drop or change races for Jasmine Crockett because of her celebrity, when she’s not guaranteed to win the general election. (I’ll get there.)

We have a lot we need to talk about. And I’m going to put a lot on the table, and some of this is going to be very inside baseball. But my dear, sweet Texas Democrats, there just isn’t enough nuance in politics, and I really hope this brings more.

First and foremost: Polling.

Why does everyone and their mothers and cousins want to get in the Senate race? Because every single one of them has internal polling that shows they can win. Every single one. Allred’s polling shows that he can win. Talarico’s shows he can win. Crockett, the same. Even Beto and Castro had polling done on that race that showed they would win if they jumped in, too.

Does polling automatically mean they will win? Not necessarily, but it’s an indicator. The type of campaign they run matters greatly. The socioeconomics of the country when the election happens matter greatly. A lot of things matter in the long run.

A poll in October, showed Talarico ahead of Allred in the primary.

Source

Over the last week, both Crockett and Talarico’s teams have released internal polls, each showing them ahead of the other.

In hypothetical match-ups with Republicans, Jasmine Crockett is within the margin of error against Paxton, and within mid-single digits of Cornyn/Hunt.

That’s roughly in the same performance band as Allred and Talarico against the same Republicans.

In other words, polls do not show her as uniquely electable or uniquely doomed. They show multiple Democrats clustered in the mid-40s, while Rs are in the high-40s/50s.

In a nutshell, the data shows that this is a weak seat for Republicans, and the Republicans running for it are all weak contenders. Democrats are all polling about the exact numbers in hypothetical match-ups.

It should also be noted that as of today, 12/1 at 1:30 pm, only two Democrats have paid the filing fees and are set to be on the ballot; one of them is James Talarico.

Source

Can we talk about this whole slate thing for a minute?

On June 28, 2025, I wrote, “Texas Dems To DC: We’re Not You,” where I talked about how amazing it would be if they all ran as a slate. I talked about how amazing that rally was and how if they all worked together like that, they could move mountains.

And we talked about it a lot after that, the four biggums, Talarico, Allred, Castro, and Beto. Of course, I said throw Allred to the fish; he came between me and someone in the last primary, and he’s got baggage, plus he doesn’t have a progressive record, even if he is trying to repackage himself as a populist.

But everyone was polling a win in the Senate race, whereas their internal polling showed a loss against Abbott.

To clarify, Talarico, Allred, Castro, Crockett, and Beto all have internal polling that showed if they launched a campaign against Abbott, it would be a long shot.

1. Allred never intended to work with anyone but himself; his ego is too big.

2. Crockett has not expressed interest in coming back to Texas politics.

3. Beto wouldn’t take that gamble with three losses already under his belt.

I’m not sure what Castro had in his mind, but perhaps he thought he would run for AG, Beto would run for Senate, Talarico would run for Governor, and I don’t know what Allred would do.

But it didn’t happen that way. Perhaps people’s egos got in the way. And maybe when you have internal polling saying, “you could win this race,” it’s too big an opportunity to pass up.

Negative partisanship.

In 2025, the world is full of Jasmine Crockett-Stans, and more power to them. I love Jasmine Crockett. I always have. For those of you who have followed me during the Legislative Sessions, I take clips from both the Texas House and the Texas Senate and post them on social media. And way back in 2021, while I was still writing under the moniker “Living Blue in TX,” I made lots of clips of Jasmine Crockett in the House and put them online, way before she was super-famous.

And Jasmine Crockett was one of the first Legislators to follow me back on Twitter, Facebook, and TikTok.

I’m telling you this because I have always supported her career since day one. Even though she’s one of the few Texas Democrats I haven’t met in person, yet.

I saw her at the 2022 TDP Convention, but she was on the phone. I tried to silently hand her my card anyway *bad social skills* and Kendyll Locke (her chief of staff) almost karate chopped me like I was a crazed groupie. I never saw her again.

But the problem isn’t me, or how much I love Jasmine Crockett. It isn’t how much the base loves her, or whether Democrats will show up to vote for her. The concern I have about Jasmine Crockett is negative partisanship.

• One 2016 study showed a growing share of Americans “strongly dislike” the other party, and this out-party hostility is a powerful predictor of political participation, including turnout.

• 2020 research from the University of Arizona notes that anger, fear, and negative campaigning empirically increase turnout, especially when campaigns “stoke fear or anxiety to turn up the base.”

• One more 2022 study showed that disdain for one party predicts turnout and political engagement, even in the absence of strong positive feelings toward the other party.

• Research from 2022 found that about **one-third of American voters in 2020 say they cast their ballot more “against” a candidate than “for” one.

I could go on; there have been many studies to support this. It’s straightforward. “I hate that candidate, so I’m definitely voting against them.”

So if Republicans hate a Democrat (Crockett, for example), that hatred doesn’t just show up in vibes and Facebook comments; the literature says it translates into showing up to vote against her.

There’s a whole body of research on this, and it has a name. Negative partisanship. Voters don’t just show up for the person they love. They show up to stop the person they hate. Political scientists have shown that Americans with intense hostility toward the other party are more likely to vote, not less. And newer work on US presidential races finds that the more someone dislikes the opposing candidate, the more likely they are to turn out just to block them. A candidate the right is absolutely obsessed with hating is not just a fundraising machine for Democrats; she can also be a turnout machine for Republicans.

Why is that a risk with Jasmine Crockett more than anyone else on the ticket?

I just want you to take this one short clip from yesterday.

These are just a SMALL sample of responses from Republicans on different platforms to this clip.

There are dozens more on Facebook, and especially Twitter, outraged MAGA about how Crockett dared to suggest deporting white supremacists.

Every time Jasmine Crockett opens her mouth, the right has a full-blown meltdown. It doesn’t matter what she says. It doesn’t matter if she’s fact-checked, clipped out of context, or literally speaking the truth on national television. The reaction is always the same. Instant demonization, instant outrage, instant viral hate-bait content.

Look at that one 45-second clip from yesterday.

She made a pretty basic point, if Trump wants to talk about “deportations,” maybe he should start with the actual violent extremists who plot mass shootings, storm federal buildings, and send bomb threats. You know, the people who actually commit terrorism on American soil.

But the right didn’t hear “white supremacists.” They heard “white people.” And suddenly she was calling for a mass deportation of all white Americans.

Breaking911 twisted her words into “INSANE!” and it got 230,000 views.
Some random dude with a blue check turned it into “light-skinned people will qualify.”
Another one took it further and said she wants all white Americans deported.

It’s manufactured hysteria, but it works because they’ve already cast her as a boogeyman, the loud, powerful Black woman who refuses to shrink to make conservative white people comfortable. They have decided she is a threat, so anything she says gets run through the outrage machine.

And this isn’t new. It’s not a one-day blip. This has been happening every single day since the first time she challenged a Republican in a televised hearing.

When Jasmine Crockett calmly dismantles GOP talking points in committee hearings? The right clips it, labels her “angry,” “unhinged,” or “ghetto.”

When she points out Republican hypocrisy? They call her “unprofessional,” “radical,” “dangerous.”

When she defends voting rights or calls out white supremacist violence? They accuse her of “hating white people.”

This is what negative partisanship looks like in real time. This is the example political scientists use when they talk about “out-party hostility.”

The hatred toward her is visceral. It’s constant. It’s supercharged. And it is being fed daily by an entire media ecosystem dedicated to turning her into a caricature.

Do Democrats love her? Absolutely. They idolize her. They share her clips like gospel. She’s the best fighter we’ve got on the national stage, and she speaks the plain truth without apology, something Democrats have been begging for.

But you and I are not the whole electorate.

To the MAGA base, to the people who already think diversity is a threat, Jasmine Crockett is the perfect villain. A strong Black woman with a spine? Terrifying. A Democrat who doesn’t flinch? Unforgivable. A politician who calls out white supremacy to its face? Unthinkable.

And the research is clear. Villains mobilize voters.

That is my concern. Not her talent. Not her message. Not her values. My concern is that the more the right hates her, the more they turn out to vote.

Could she still win the general election?

Maybe, but it’s a gamble. No one else running on the ticket has that much negative partisanship against them. Not Talarico. Not Allred.

But Jasmine Crockett could win the primary election.

In Texas, Democratic primaries are decided by a tiny, weird little slice of the electorate. Maybe six percent of registered voters, disproportionately older, whiter, urban, extremely online liberals who are way more engaged than the average Democrat. That’s who actually shows up to pick our nominees, long before the broader, younger, more Black and brown Democratic electorate ever gets a say in November.

If the Black community mobilizes for Crockett in the primary, it could swing the vote her way, but it still puts her at risk during the general because of the negative partisanship.

And wouldn’t it suck if in a year Democrats were expected to overperform, when we were expected to win that seat, we actually lost that seat because Republicans hate Black women more than they love cheating, one-eyed, crooks?

At the end of the day, this isn’t about who we like best.

It’s not about who goes the most viral, who delivers the best soundbites, or who can drag a Republican into the depths of hell with a single sentence. If it were, Jasmine Crockett would win the Senate seat tomorrow with 98% of the vote and a standing ovation.

But elections aren’t fantasy football drafts. They’re math. They’re turnout. They’re demographics, geography, and strategy. And they’re won and lost by people who don’t live on our timelines, don’t watch our clips, and don’t swoon over our fighters.

We can love Jasmine Crockett and still be honest about the political terrain she’d be walking into. We can admire her courage and still recognize that Republicans will weaponize her existence harder than any other Democrat on the ballot. Those two things can be true at the same time.

Texas Democrats cannot afford to waste this moment. Not when the state is shifting. Not when Republicans are weaker than they’ve been in a decade. Not when the Senate seat is actually within reach. Not when 2026 is supposed to be our year.

We need the strongest possible ticket. We need a disciplined strategy, not vibes. And we need voters, all voters, not just the six percent who show up in the primary, to have a real chance at winning a statewide race for the first time in 30 years.

Whoever files. Whoever stays in. Whoever wins the primary.

My only ask is this. Don’t make this decision based on fandom. Make it based on winning.

Because Texas is changing. The numbers are shifting. The opportunity is real. And if we blow it because we let Twitter decide our nominee? If we lose a winnable Senate seat because the right’s hatred machine outpaced our strategy?

That would be the most Texas-Democrat thing imaginable, and the one mistake we absolutely cannot make in 2026.

Let’s fight smart. Let’s fight united. And let’s win the damn thing.

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