Which Texas State House Districts Should Democrats Target In 2026?

A Blueprint For A Blue Wave: Targets, turnout, and why challengers matter.

The Senate has been going with the maps bill (HB4) all day long, and Senator Carol Alvarado (D-SD06) is expected to filibuster the bill tonight. You can tune in here.

I’ll have updates tomorrow. As of writing this (11 pm), the Senate is on recess until 11:30 pm. Dan Patrick did that in order to get as few eyes on the Senate as possible. The debate on HB4 started at 10:00 am. While this filibuster won’t kill the bill, it will bring more attention to the Republicans’ power grab and further delay it.

Let’s go, Senator Alvarado!

Both updated today:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

It seems like every time I turn around, someone is talking about Congressional races, and while admittedly, in the age of Trump, it’s crucial to have a full slate of Democrats running for Congress, we cannot forget or neglect how vital the Legislative races are.

As of today, there are only four Congressional races that don’t yet have a Democratic candidate who has filed or announced a run. On the other hand, we still have nine Texas Senate races that don’t have Democratic candidates, and 72 Texas House races that don’t have Democratic candidates yet (and that’s assuming that all the Democrats who have yet to announce re-election will do so).

We still don’t have candidates for Land Commissioner, Railroad Commissioner, and several State Board of Education seats.

There are about three and a half months until the filing deadline. And while some of these seats may have prospects who simply haven’t announced yet, until they do, we don’t know about them.

While we still have plenty of time, I’d like to discuss the Texas House, focusing on which seats we can flip next year and their locations. Perhaps the ideal candidate for these races is reading this very moment. Or maybe you know someone who would be perfect for this office (make sure to send them this article). Either way, we need to talk about these races NOW, not when it’s too late.

What happens in the Legislature impacts your daily life far more than anything that happens in Congress.

Don’t get me wrong. Congress matters, and we absolutely need to fight for every seat there. But while people are glued to national races, the Legislature is where Republicans have been passing the most damaging laws year after year.

Think about it, the Texas House is where decisions are made about public school funding, teacher pay, property taxes, health care access, and reproductive rights. It’s where they decide whether libraries stay open or whether books are banned. It’s where they decide whether your drinking water is safe or if corporations can continue to drain and pollute it. It’s where they set wages, cut safety nets, and drive maternal mortality rates higher than anywhere else in the developed world. It’s where they push attacks on LGBTQ Texans, ban diversity programs, and let the foster care system collapse.

These are the fights that shape whether your kids have a nurse in their school, whether your neighborhood has clean water, whether your job pays enough to live, and whether you have access to health care or not.

If we flip the Texas House, we can fix gerrymandering, raise wages, invest in public schools, protect libraries, tackle the water crisis, improve infrastructure, and take real steps to lower Texas’s disgraceful maternal mortality rate. They’re life-and-death for millions of Texans.

That’s why the Texas House races are some of the most important contests on the ballot next year. They deserve the same energy, money, and organizing that we pour into Congressional races because if we win here, we change everything.

Currently, Republicans have 88 seats, Democrats have 62 seats. That means we would need to flip at least 14 seats in 2026 to give Democrats control of the Texas House.

It’s not too tall of an order, considering we flipped 12 in 2018.

How do we get there?

We’re going to start in Nueces County, even though we’ve already talked about these seats this week, because by far the easiest seat Democrats should be able to flip is HD34, which is currently held by Denise Villalobos (R). But I also want to talk about Todd Hunter’s seat (HD32), since it’s in Nueces County too, and fuck that guy.

HD34 was designed to be a lean Republican, but the margins have stayed tight. With turnout so low in both 2022 and 2024, Republicans have only been holding on by a few thousand votes. If Democrats can boost participation in Nueces County, especially in the neighborhoods that sat out the last two cycles, HD34 becomes a prime flip opportunity. The math is simple. Democrats need to claw back a few thousand more voters than they did in 2024.

For Democrats to flip HD32 in 2026, they will have to overperform compared to the last two cycles massively. In 2022, Todd Hunter ran unopposed. In 2024, when a Democrat finally got on the ballot, turnout rose to about 78,700, but Hunter still cruised to victory with nearly 69% of the vote. That left Democrats trailing by almost 29,500 votes, which means they would need to net about 14,700 additional votes to pull even. Put another way, Democrats would have to improve their performance by nearly 19% of the 2024 electorate to flip the seat.

However, with a solid top of the ticket and a lot of hard work by Nueces Democrats, thrown on top of Trump’s sinking poll numbers and rising inflation, who knows what might happen.

The next seat Democrats should have their eyes on is HD37 in Cameron County. This is one of the most flippable districts in the state because the numbers already lean our way. We need to boost turnout slightly. In 2021, Republicans only carved out a tiny 2.2% advantage here when they drew the maps, and the last two elections have shown just how close it really is. In 2022, turnout barely cracked 29% of the voting-age population, with Republicans pulling about 20,400 votes and Democrats right behind with nearly 19,000. In 2024, turnout improved to just over 41%, and the gap widened slightly, but Republicans still only managed 30,590 votes compared to 25,014 for Democrats.

That margin of roughly 5,500 votes is not insurmountable. To flip HD37 in 2026, Democrats need to net about 2,800 additional votes, which is less than 3% of the total 2024 electorate.

Bexar County.

Let’s move into Bexar County, we’ve got three districts worth watching closely in 2026. HD118, HD121, and HD122.

HD118 is already one of the most competitive seats in the state. In fact, Republicans only drew themselves a tiny 2.7% advantage here in 2021, and the numbers have backed that up. In 2022, turnout was only about 33.6% of the voting-age population, with Republicans edging out Democrats 26,357 to 24,488, a margin of less than 1,900 votes. By 2024, turnout rose to 50%, with Republicans securing 39,224 votes and Democrats securing 36,624 votes. That left Democrats trailing by only 2,622 votes, or about 1.7% of the electorate. To flip HD118 in 2026, Democrats would need to net just 1,312 votes, an entirely achievable target.

HD121 is another district where the math is trending our way. In 2022, Republicans held a 10-point lead, beating Democrats by 7,748 votes. But in 2024, turnout surged to over 62%, and Democrats closed the gap to just 4,909 votes. That means flipping HD121 only requires Democrats to net about 2.5% more of the total electorate. This is a textbook swing seat, it’s one of the clearest opportunities for Democrats to pick up ground in Bexar.

HD122, however, is a tougher nut to crack. This was drawn with an 8.8% Republican advantage, and the GOP has been expanding that edge. In 2022, Republicans won by about 12,700 votes. In 2024, they widened the gap to nearly 17,800 votes, even as turnout rose to over. It’s not impossible, it’s a much heavier lift than HD118 or HD121.

Taken together, these three districts show the range of opportunities Democrats have in Bexar County.

Dallas County.

In Dallas County, there are two districts that Democrats should have on the radar. HD112 and HD108.

HD112 is already competitive and trending in the right direction. Republicans only built themselves a half-point advantage here when they drew the maps in 2021, and it shows. In 2022, Angie Chen Button won with just 37,566 votes to the Democrats’ 30,946, a margin of about 6,600 votes. By 2024, turnout rose to 61% of the voting-age population, and while Button still won, the margin stayed essentially the same at 6,811 votes. To flip HD112, Democrats would need to net about 3,406 votes, or 3.9% of the 2024 electorate. With a strong candidate and sustained organizing in the suburbs of Garland and Richardson, this district is absolutely within reach.

HD108 is one of the wealthier, whiter districts in central Dallas, and while the maps only gave Republicans a 0.8-point advantage here in 2020, Republicans have been holding it comfortably. In 2022, Morgan Meyer won by 11,365 votes, and in 2024, even with turnout surging to nearly 70%, he expanded his margin to almost 15,920 votes. To flip HD108, Democrats would need to net nearly 7,961 votes, or about 7.6% of the electorate.

Put together, these two districts highlight the range of possibilities in Dallas County. HD112 should be a top-tier target, where Democrats can win if we show up and invest.

Tarrant County.

Now let’s talk about Tarrant County, where three districts are on the board, though they’re all tougher than the seats we’ve looked at so far. However, there are a lot of groups spreading a lot of energy in Tarrant County right now, and I think these three seats can be on the chopping block for Republicans.

HD94 was held by Tony Tinderholt, one of the most extreme members of the Texas House. In 2022, he won by about 8,200 votes, and in 2024, even with a higher turnout, his margin barely budged. To flip this district, Democrats would need to net about 4,425 votes, or 5.6% of the electorate. That’s not out of reach, especially as Arlington continues to diversify, but it will take serious investment to close the gap.

HD96 is David Cook’s seat in southern Tarrant. He ran unopposed in 2022, but when Democrats finally contested the race in 2024, Cook won by over 12,500 votes. But with him running for the Senate, his seat is open for a new face.

HD97 covers the southwest Fort Worth area, and the numbers there are even steeper. Republicans won by about 10,500 votes in 2022 and expanded their margin to 14,300 in 2024. Flipping this one would require Democrats to net about 7,150 votes, or 8.1% of the electorate.

None of them are easy flips, but HD94 is the most promising, HD96 is possible with the right conditions, and HD97 would require a wave election, which we’re expecting next year.

Bell County.

Y’all, we have to get Bell County voting in higher numbers. On paper, these seats appear more competitive than some of the suburban ones we just reviewed, but the reality is they’ve been non-voting districts for a long time.

HD54 includes much of Killeen and the Fort Cavazos area. This is one of the most diverse districts in the state, with nearly 58% of the voting-age population being non-Anglo. In 2022, Brad Buckley beat the Democrat by more than 10,000 votes, and in 2024, he won by an even larger 12,500 votes. To flip this seat, Democrats would need to net about 6,300 votes, or 11% of the 2024 electorate. The Democratic base is there in raw numbers, but only 42% of eligible voters cast a ballot in 2024.

HD55 covers Temple, Belton, and the surrounding parts of Bell County. This district is whiter and slightly more Republican than HD54, and the results reflect that. In 2022, Republicans won by more than 10,000 votes, and in 2024, the margin stayed about the same. To flip this seat, Democrats would need to net about 5,100 more votes, or 7.4% of the electorate.

The population is large and diverse, especially in Killeen, but Democratic turnout has not kept pace with the Republican machine.

Collin and Denton Counties.

I heard recently that Collin County is experiencing a lot of “white flight,” which makes me wonder how that will impact the election. The next cluster of seats Democrats should be paying close attention to is in Collin and Denton Counties. These suburban districts have been trending slowly but steadily more competitive over the past decade.

Take HD61, turnout in 2024 hit over 70% of the voting-age population, one of the highest anywhere in the state, yet Republicans still carried it 59.6% to 40.4%. That left Democrats trailing by nearly 19,000 votes. Back in 2022, with lower turnout, the gap was about 11,000 votes. For Democrats to flip this district in 2026, they would need to overcome roughly 9,500 votes to break even. But if every racist in the Colony and Frisco is fleeing for whiter pastures, who knows where there will land.

Meanwhile, over in HD63, the math looks a little less brutal, but still tricky. Republicans won in 2024 by about 9,500 votes (55.7% to 44.3%), up from a margin of about 7,600 votes in 2022. Turnout improved from 42% to 55% of the VAP, yet the gap widened. That means Democrats would need to net an additional 4,800–5,000 votes to flip the seat, which translates into shifting about 6% of the 2024 electorate. It’s plausible, especially in a year with a favorable environment.

Then there’s HD65. Mitch Little’s 2024 margin was 20,600 votes, winning 60.3% to 39.7%. In 2022, the margin was about 14,000 votes, even with turnout climbing to nearly 65% in 2024. To make this district competitive, Democrats would have to net over 10,000 new ballots, but you also need to take into consideration how much hate has been growing surrounding Little, especially after his last CNN interview.

In HD66 and HD67, the story is the same. Democrats would need to find about 10,000ish additional votes to draw even. Democrats can’t afford to ignore them, but flipping them will require suburban organizing on a large scale we haven’t seen yet, registering tens of thousands of new voters, building real infrastructure, and turning out communities that have historically underperformed.

If there’s one lesson from looking at these districts, it’s that opportunity is everywhere, but only if we’re willing to fight for it.

The math shows us where the margins are close, where turnout has been lagging, and where Republicans are vulnerable. In places like Nueces, Cameron, Bexar, Tarrant, Bell, Denton, and Collin Counties, the ingredients for a blue wave are already on the table. Demographics are shifting, turnout gaps can be closed, and Republican majorities are thinner than they’d like us to believe. But none of it matters if Democrats don’t put names on the ballot.

We flipped a dozen seats in 2018. We can do it again in 2026, but this time, with the House majority on the line, we need to do even more. Every district we’ve walked through has one thing in common. They won’t flip themselves. They need challengers, organizers, volunteers, and neighbors willing to get in the fight.

If Democrats step up and run in all of these seats, 2026 could be the year that Texans finally break the Republican stranglehold on the Legislature. If we do the work now, the blue wave won’t be a question of if, it’ll be a question of how big.

• November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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