Gee, we’re like 48 days away now. And I promised you a few other pieces of content beforehand. This is part of my county series. If you missed the previous installments:
I know, I’ve gone a little bananas with the headline, but I thought it was time to break up the monotony. Besides, if you haven’t heard, Votehub has moved Texas to “Lean Dem,” and on their map, they have Collin County as BLUE.
And for those of you with particularly sharp eyes, you may have also noticed they have the entire RGV, WilCo, and Jefferson County blue as well. However, Brazoria and Bell Counties still look pink. But of course, Votehub has been wrong before.
Regarding Collin County, though. This county is ready to flip. This is a county I have said (for years) is the next flip in DFW after Tarrant.
First of all, look at the presidential results in Collin County for the last two decades:
Caveat, we know Democrats largely stayed home in 2022 and 2024. LOL at all the Republicans who just thought Texas was moving the other way, as opposed to people not voting.
But this year is a midterm election. So, let’s look at the past few midterms:
If you were only looking at the county-wide numbers, you would think Collin County Democrats got to a certain place by 2018 and have basically hovered there since. And that’s not too far from reality, but let’s look more closely.
As I said, statewide turnout was down in 2022 and 2024. Collin County was no exception. Kendall Scudder confirmed that 1.4 million Democrats stayed home in 2024, so it’s safe to assume they stayed home in 2022 as well. We’ve been over this, ad nauseam, these last few years. Why didn’t Democrats show up in 2022 and 2024? That’s not the discussion we’re having today. The discussion we’re having today is:
Will they show up in 2026?
Besides the statewide candidates, Collin County has three Congresspeople, six State Representatives, and one State Senator on the ballot this year.
There are also County Elections happening. I haven’t been following those, but I have been following the onslaught of drama that seems to repeat in this county. From the Karmelo Anthony case to the Islamophobic protests, this county has become a boiling kettle, even leading to the statewide ban of famed white supremacist Jake Lang.
Collin County Democratic Party fundraising numbers this year are not too terribly far behind the Republicans. The GOP is always going to have more money than us, because they’re the party of the elite. However, we should be beating them on precinct chairs. Right now, we aren’t.
The Collin County Democratic Party has had several chairs in recent years, with Jeremy Sutka the latest.
The Congressional seats.
TX03, Evan Hunt, who is running against Keith Self, a Pennsylvania native who has a history of quoting Joseph Goebbels and has also picked up the torch against his Muslim neighbors. Collin County has a Muslim population of about 3%.
TX03 covers much of Collin County and most of Hunt County. Cook PVI lists this district as R+11, which could indicate vulnerability in a blue-tsunami election.
TX04, Jason Pearce, who is running against Pat Fallon, a Massachusetts native who has a history of mocking other people’s sexuality and has voted to cut more than $1 trillion in healthcare and food aid.
TX04 covers parts of Collin County along with Bowie, Delta, Denton, Fannin, and several other Northeast Texas counties. Cook PVI lists this district as R+12, one point redder than TX03.
TX32, Dan Barrios, who is running against Jace Yarbrough.
TX32 stretches east through Rockwall, Hunt, Rains, Wood, Camp, and Upshur Counties along with slivers of Collin and Dallas. Cook PVI lists this district as R+8.
Texas House seats.
HD33: Orlando Lopez, who is running against Katrina Pierson. This seat is mostly in Rockwall County, but a small sliver of it runs through Collin. The Collin slice is more diverse, with 54.5% non-Anglo and a significant Asian population at 21.7%.
I had an entire conversation with a friend this morning about how districts might be 30% R, but only have a 50% turnout. And how turnout is generally low because Democrats stay home and when that turnout changes, the R-tilt changes, and this year, that’s the whole ball game. That’s in general. HD33 is more like a 25% R and a 52% midterm turnout.
In most of these Collin County seats, if Democrats moved the needle +5, they’re going to flip the seat. HD33 is a little trickier, because it’s mostly in Rockwall County.
HD61: Brittany Black, who is running against Keresa Richardson. HD61 is one of those suburban North Texas seats that still reads “red” on paper, but not deep red. Demographically, it’s basically a 50/50 Anglo vs. non-Anglo district with a very large Asian community (about 23% of the total population) and a combined Black+Hispanic share of around 24%.
Last election cycle, I kept a spreadsheet of all the crazy pledges Republicans were taking. Texit. Abolish Abortion. Ban Democratic Chairs. Keresa Richardson was the only Republican who signed them all. So, she’s extra, extra loony. There’s no spreadsheet this cycle. Just assume they’ve all fell off the deep-end.
HD66: Sandeep Srviastava, who is running against Matt Shaheen. The district is 55.3% Anglo with a massive Asian-American population of 20.4%. Trump carried it by 14 points in 2024, but the Senate race gap was only 9 points. Srivastava is the Democratic challenger, and his name recognition alone in a heavily South Asian district could matter. This is exactly the kind of district where a wave plus the right candidate bio can produce an upset that nobody saw coming.
HD67: Jordan Wheatley, who is running against Jeff Leach. After spending his entire career voting in favor of racism, just this week, Jeff Leach pretended to not like racism. Leach has been fending off Democratic challengers in this Collin County district since 2018 and keeps winning. Jordan Wheatley will now get his shot at one of the more entrenched Republican incumbents on the target list.
HD70: Mihaela Plesa is the incumbent in this district and is fending off some Republican rando. Plesa represents her district well. You know, the one thing I’ve learned about Texans is they really appreciate a Representative who shows up, and Plesa always shows up. And her district knows that. She’ll win re-election.
HD89: Angie Carraway, who is running against Candy Noble. This district is probably the hardest district in Collin County, with a much bigger swing than the rest of them. In a tsunami, where we see the dream situation, and Republicans get completely wiped out, maybe this one flips too. Republicans should vote against Candy Noble though. One time, she defended incest.
Texas Senate.
There’s only a small tiny pice of SD02 that snakes across the bottom of Collin County, and it’s the only Senate district up for re-election in Collin County. However, it’s an important district. Keenen Colbert is running for this district, against far-right QAnon member, Bob Hall. We can flip this district this year.
SD2 in 2024 had only a 64.3% turnout, meaning 225,950 registered voters stayed home in a presidential year with a competitive US Senate race at the top of the ticket. In 2022, the last midterm, turnout was 44%. Collin County is 9% of the district. Expensive real estate, educated suburbanites. The small sliver in SD2 is probably ticket-splitter country. Small in numbers, but the type of voter who breaks away from Hall on school vouchers and healthcare costs.
My prediction? Collin County turns blue this November.
Now, maybe that’s magical thinking, but I’m hearing these days it’s increasingly reasonable. I’ve been saying for years this is the next flip in DFW after Tarrant, is Collin. Every number is exactly the kind of thing that precedes a flip. A primary electorate splitting 48/52 in a county Republicans have owned by double digits for two decades. Democrats retaining more of their presidential-year turnout in special elections than Republicans, nationally and here. A Senate district Trump carried by 17 points flipping on a 32-point swing. Talarico ahead of Paxton statewide in a county that’s supposed to be redder than the state average.
Call it 225,000 Democratic votes if you want the conservative number. I think the enthusiasm gap we’re watching build all year finally shows up on a ballot that matters, and I think Collin County, with Karmelo Anthony, the Islamophobic protests, Jake Lang and all, it’s done being an afterthought in a Republican machine.
Democrats have been waiting for Texas to change on its own for twenty years. But this is the year the waiting ends in Collin County. 🤞🏻
48 days until the November election!
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
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All the political signage around Frisco is blue, and declares the candidate to be conservative with a small "c". No MAGA red in sight. One little problem they have is that Frisco ISD voters are massively pissed off about the legislature gutting FISD's finances. A top 5% ranked school district rapidly being defunded is going to gut property values.
SO exciting!!! Just shared on bsky & will be keeping all my fingers crossed. Thank you, Michelle!