Woah! Texas' Total Early Voting Numbers

Democrats surge ahead as the electorate shifts beneath our feet.

Before we dive in, I want to show y’all a brand-new tool, Sway.co. Sway lets you follow candidates, see who’s on your ballot, and keep track of the races that normally get ignored, like judicial races, the down-ballot legislative races, and the ones that actually shape what happens in your community day-to-day. It’s basically a central hub where voters and candidates can connect directly, without the usual noise and gatekeeping.

I just created a DFW Progressives group covering (Dallas, Tarrant, Collin, and Denton Counties), specifically focused on the progressive candidates in the down-ballot races. They’re suggestions, when you go to the polls, which have been vetted by me, down to clerks and constables.

Yes, this is coming late in the primary. I only learned about Sway from my friend StevieSaidForNow recently. But municipal elections are coming up in May, and those races are even more down-ballot, even lower-information, and even more dependent on engaged voters. By then, we’ll be fully set up, and this tool will be incredibly useful.

So go ahead and join my group now, get familiar with it, and make sure you’re connected before the next round of elections hits.

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Y’all. This is one hell of an Early Vote turnout number. Once we get through Election Day, this may wind up being the highest Democratic turnout in Texas history (previously being 2008, with 2.8 million). For sure, we’ll have lots to discuss on Wednesday and Thursday, but first, the Early Vote turnout. Drumroll….

• Democrats: 1,503,212

• Republicans: 1,279,805

Pretty good. This chart is from one of my favorite pollsters, Adam Carlson:

The fast-growing DFW suburbs/exurbs (Collin, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, Rockwall, Parker) are turning out in super high numbers. Already 90-95% higher than the entire 2022/2024 Dem primary electorates.

Did you know the DFW region’s population is supposed to be 12.5 million by 2050?

Let’s see (D) vs. (R) in DFW:

• Dallas:

  • Democrats: 191,523

  • Republicans: 65,522

• Tarrant:

  • Democrats: 126,119

  • Republicans: 95,125

• Collin:

  • Democrats: 64,891

  • Republicans: 70,394

• Denton:

  • Democrats: 57,282

  • Republicans: 60,874

• Ellis:

  • Democrats: 12,480

  • Republicans: 16,564

• Kaufman:

  • Democrats: 8,012

  • Republicans: 9,207

• Rockwall:

  • Democrats: 4,901

  • Republicans: 10,790

• Parker:

  • Democrats: 3,925

  • Republicans: 16,619

We expected Dallas and Tarrant Democrats to beat the Republicans. And we expected Collin and Denton Democrats to be nipping at the heels of Republicans. However, I did not expect Kaufman and Ellis to be as close as they are.

Kaufman and Ellis Counties are two counties I’ve previously written about, and we should expect them to be blue in the 2030s based on the trend lines of the last decade. However, if urban sprawl wants to accelerate that timeline, it’d be pretty awesome.

I expect Tarrant County will be blue in November. Collin County? Meh. It’s a toss-up. It could always go blue, but it’s going to take a lot of work and a lot more resources, and that’s not a shot, because I know how hard they are currently working. If Collin County doesn’t flip this year, it’ll flip in 2028. I would expect Denton County to flip in 2028, as well. Once those four counties are blue, Kaufman and Ellis are the next two targets.

The I-35 Corridor.

As far as the Senate race goes, I’m sure when the results roll in, we’ll see this was Talarico country. Travis, Hays, and Bexar are reliably blue, but I’m expecting Williamson County to flip blue this November. Let’s look at the turnout.

• Bell:

  • Democrats: 11,247

  • Republicans: 11,913

• Williamson:

  • Democrats: 47,340

  • Republicans: 36,264

• Travis:

  • Democrats: 135,776

  • Republicans: 34,668

• Hays:

  • Democrats: 22,607

  • Republicans: 11,739

• Comal:

  • Democrats: 6,051

  • Republicans: 13,871

• Bexar:

  • Democrats: 128,466

  • Republicans: 62,185

Bell County can be flipped at any time Democrats are ready to flip it. Not to simplify what needs to be done, because Bell County needs a lot of resources and support, but they have the numbers to flip the county. They need the GOTV campaigns to make it happen.

And now a look at a hilarious analysis of early voting numbers by Republican pollster, Hunt Research Group in Dallas.

😈 “Voters in swing constituencies key to Republican success this fall have chosen to vote in the Democratic Primary rather than in the Republican Primary by a margin of nearly 3:1.”

This Republican pollster is admitting that in the exact voters Republicans rely on to win general elections, those voters are disproportionately choosing the Democratic primary. Three to one.

Look at the specific groups they highlight:

• First-time independent primary voters: 72.9% Democratic

• Hispanic voters: 74.7% Democratic

• Independent Hispanic voters: 83.5% Democratic

• Independent women: 77.5% Democratic

• Independents in mixed partisan households: 79.5% Democratic

• Even independent white voters: 59.7% Democratic

That last number matters enormously. Republicans can survive losing Hispanic voters. They cannot survive losing independent white voters in large suburban districts.

This table is the most damaging part of the entire report:

• Democratic projected general election votes increased by 494,984

• Republican projected general election votes increased by only 14,636

They are explicitly acknowledging that the turnout shift they’re seeing is large enough, by itself, to erase previous statewide Republican victory margins. They are explicitly acknowledging that their current data shows a major Democratic advantage.

This report was a warning memo to other Republicans. Because the most dangerous signal in politics is when swing voters start showing up on the other side.

Now, we need to keep that momentum going until November. Full speed ahead.

VoteHub Demographic estimates.

When you see VoteHub putting out racial breakdowns of early voters, they’re doing probabilistic estimation by taking your last name, and layering on census data, neighborhood data, and other data points to estimate at the individual race fields. It’s data science.

DFW:

That is a very Black-heavy electorate and a very White-heavy electorate at the same time. Which is exactly why this thing can be close. You’ve basically got two big engines in the room.

Harris County:

Harris County, compared to the “2020 Biden coalition,” the 2026 Dem primary early vote share shows white up (26% → 34%), Black slightly up (32% → 34%), Hispanics down (32% → 24%), Asians down (7% → 4%).

Here’s what that means in a Crockett vs. Talarico frame:

• Crockett will need to win Harris County by at least +6 or +7 to win the Senate race. We’re expecting her to dominate the Black vote, keep enough consolidation elsewhere, and win by mobilization. And in places like Dallas County/DFW, that “Black share in the 30s” estimate is no small detail.

• Talarico’s path is to run up margins with White voters and be competitive (or better) with Latino voters, especially in the big-metro/suburban universe where you’ve already shown Democrats are surging. The warning sign for him in Harris is that the Hispanic share is down.

However, Democratic votes are way up in the valley.

Hidalgo and Cameron Counties:

Hidalgo: D+51 in 2022, now D+58.

Cameron: D+39 in 2022, now D+45.

There is a competitive Democratic House race in this area (HD41), and it could also be a good sign for our friend Etienne Rosas, who is running to unseat Vicente Gonzalez in TX34.

From Ryan Data.

Ryan Data, if you remember, is one of the few Republican data analytics companies in Texas that I slightly trust.

Turnout every day of the election:

• Democratic breakdown.

• Republican breakdown.

Republicans by age:

Democrats by age:

What does it mean?

• 80% of Republicans are over 50.

• 59% of Democrats are over 50.

• 3% of Republicans are under 30.

• 12% of Democrats are under 30.

And of course, all of this is subject to change on election day when another million or two voters will hit the polls. And likely Wednesday and Thursday, we’ll be talking about more data, because then we’ll have the full picture. And that’s really the key point here. This isn’t one number. It isn’t one county. It isn’t one demographic group. It’s the entire electorate shifting, all at once.

Democrats are ahead statewide by more than 220,000 votes before Election Day even begins.

They’re overperforming in the suburbs. They’re overperforming in the Valley. They’re pulling in independents at levels that Republican pollsters themselves are openly worried about. Younger voters are showing up at higher rates. And in the metro counties where statewide elections are decided, the raw vote advantage is already substantial.

At the same time, the coalition itself is evolving in real time. Black voters remain a central pillar of the Democratic electorate. White suburban voters are re-entering the Democratic primary universe in larger numbers. Latino turnout is surging in some regions and lagging in others. And because this primary has drawn in so many new and irregular voters, the final margins in races like Crockett vs. Talarico will likely reflect not persuasion, but composition (who showed up, and in what proportion).

But the most important takeaway is that this level of turnout doesn’t happen by accident. It happens when voters are engaged. It happens when voters are paying attention. And it happens when voters believe their participation matters.

We’ll know the winners soon enough. But the early vote has already told us something bigger than any single race outcome.

Texas Democrats are not shrinking. They are expanding.

Now we wait for Election Day.

Remember to join me Tuesday night here on Substack for a live chat as we watch the race results roll in together!

• March 3, 2026: Primary Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

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