Y’all Can’t All Be The Headliner

This state is winnable if our stars stop stepping on each other.

Yesterday, The Dallas Morning News published an article outlining how, last month, Colin Allred, Joaquin Castro, Beto O’Rourke, and James Talarico met in secret to discuss which one of them would be the best choice to run for the Senate seat. Apparently, all four of them are steadfastly interested in running for Senate AND NOTHING ELSE.

First of all, what the fuck?

Secondly, why is Colin Allred even part of these conversations?

Third, let’s talk about the top of the ticket in 2026.

In 2026, the Governor is up for election, and so is the Lieutenant Governor, the Attorney General, and the US Senator. That’s four major seats that we need major players in who can raise major money.

First of all, let’s get the Colin Allred problem out of the way.

Let’s hope the out-of-state financeers don’t coast him through another primary, because what a nightmare that would be. Of course, anything is better than a Republican, but Allred shouldn’t win another Democratic primary in Texas.

Texas Democrats hold certain beliefs, which they voted on in their county and state conventions, and these beliefs were subsequently incorporated into the Texas Democratic Party platform. Allred’s ideals DO NOT align with the TDP platform; he does not believe in universal healthcare, he does not believe in expanding the Supreme Court, he doesn’t believe in equal rights for transgender individuals, and he consistently voted like a Republican on energy until he ran for Senate last year. Like:

• He voted with Republicans (and Lizzie Fletcher) to save stoves.

• He was only one of the four Democrats who voted against lowering energy costs.

He made plenty of bad votes in Congress, votes that didn’t bite him in the ass from the safe white suburbs of Dallas, but votes that made a lot of other Texas Democrats look twice. Not only that, he ran an awful campaign. He didn’t come off as authentic or relatable. He had his shot, he took it, he lost. If he wants to be in politics, he should go back to Congress.

“But, Michelle,” you say, “he won the Democratic primary. And he came in closer than Beto did in 2022.”

Y’all can thank the DNC for that. Who had no business sticking their nose down here where it didn’t belong, yet were sending national texts and emails on behalf of Allred and raising money for him across the country, DURING THE PRIMARY.

Allred burst on the scene with millions of out-of-state dollars, running TV ads, and Roland Gutierrez barely had a chance, unfortunately.

The DNC (of the past) fucked Texas Democrats more than once.

Oh yeah, we’re going to talk about it today. I heard a rumor (unverified) that our new Chair, Kendall Scudder, called the new DNC Chair, Ken Martin, and told him to stay out of our primaries. Now, I could probably reach out to Scudder and ask him if it’s true, but if he says “it’s not,” I think it would break my heart.

Because the DNC is notorious for sticking their noses all up in our Democratic primaries, Allred for one. Henry Cuellar vs. Jessica Cisneros for another.

Side note, where is Jessica Cisneros these days? She should try one last time. 2026 is the year. And if Laredo can swing three strong progressives to primary all their DINOs (Cuellar, Richard Raymond, and Judith Zaffirini), they’d have a shot at a real magical moment. Is there even a progressive movement in Laredo? If not, there should be.

But next, that brings me to Joaquin Castro. I love him. Don’t you love him? His ideals almost always align with Texas Democrats, but hearing that he’s considering a run again… does that kind of feel like Groundhog Day?

Because the word on the street was that Joaquin Castro was going to run for Lt. Governor in 2020, until the DNC talked him out of it.

And then it was rumored that Joaquin Castro would run for Governor in 2022, until the DNC talked him out of it.

So, know that if he never announces that he’s running for US Senate, or something else, it’ll probably be because the DNC talked him out of it.

But the DNC has a new Chair (Ken Martin), and maybe they won’t do that anymore. And the TDP has a new chair (Kendall Scudder), so perhaps they won’t tolerate that anymore. It’s our first election with new Chairs all around, so we’ll have to wait and see.

And, Beto.

Beto has already lost three elections, and that’s a big strike against him. But he’s widely loved, and millions of Texans adore him as an idealist, and maybe as an idea. That 2018 election was within his reach. He showed everyone it could be done in Texas. He scared the shit out of Republicans, caused them to gerrymander Texas so bad, they’re pushing back against gerrymandering any further.

Many Texas Democrats were disappointed when he chose to run for president in 2020 instead of challenging Cornyn, especially after the momentum he built in 2018. However, I think they got over it by the time of his 2022 race.

He still moved the needle.

• 2014: Abbott v. Davis: 59.27% / 38.90%

• 2018: Abbott v. Valdez: 55.8% / 42.5%

• 2022: Abbott v. Beto: 54.76% / 43.86%

In recent weeks, I’ve seen comments in my own social media posts and around the internet discussing the desire for Beto to run again, despite his having lost three times already.

Another discussion I’ve also seen on social media is that some people still hold a grudge against him for not supporting Biden or not going all in for Harris, but I don’t think that sentiment is widespread. Especially considering 1.4 million Texas Democrats stayed home in 2024.

For such a long time in Texas, Democrats have felt ignored, invisible, even. Beto has been one person who has consistently shown up. In every county, with the same message, with the same passion, “You deserve better. We can make this world better.” He’s authentic.

There are going to be a lot of people who say that he’s a three-time loser, but there are going to be twice as many who say, “He showed up when no one else would.”

And that matters.

If Beto is going to run another statewide campaign in Texas and wants to win, it can’t be 2022. It has to be 2018 times two. Double of what he did in 2018, with a full slate of progressives at every level of the ticket, campaigning with him in lock-step.

But who has the best chance? Who should go first?

James Talaric and Joaquin Castro shouldn’t fight each other. Instead, one should go for the Governor’s race, the other for the US Senate race.

In my opinion, they both could win. The Senate is the big show. National money, national headlines, and a singular focus. The Governor’s race, though, is where the real organizing power lies. That’s where you shape the agenda. That’s where you protect abortion rights, trans kids, libraries, public schools, and the basic dignity of working people in this state.

Texas has never had a Latino Governor. Ever. Not in our 178 years of statehood. That alone should tell you how big that opportunity is.

James Talarico has the charisma, the fire, and the digital presence to reach voters who don’t usually vote. He’s young, he’s quick, and he speaks fluent Gen Z without sounding like he’s trying too hard. His floor speeches go viral for a reason. And if we’re looking to turn out the youth vote, the new voters, the pissed-off renters, and the burned-out teachers, he’s the guy who can wake them up.

Joaquin Castro, on the other hand, is the steady hand. He’s got deep experience, legislative credibility, and national respect. He’s the kind of candidate who reassures independents and brings back disillusioned Democrats who left after the 2016 election. And if Cornyn gets knocked out in the primary by Paxton, then Castro’s the one who can actually beat Paxton in a general. He’d make mincemeat out of him in a debate, and you know it.

Let’s take Allred and Beto out of this equation for a minute.

If it were just Talarico and Castro, and the seats were just Governor and US Senate, what would you want to see?

But what about Allred and Beto?

Well, if the DNC talks Castro out of a run again, Beto is in. And considering the DNC’s record of talking Castro out of statewide races in Texas, it can’t be written off.

Here is my forecast (I would put money on this):

• Allred cannot beat Beto in a primary

• Allred cannot beat Castro in a primary

• Allred cannot beat Talarico in a primary

Not without DNC money. Now, if the DNC does get involved in our primaries and they talk Castro out of running, they may shove Allred down our throats again. Beto can outraise him. Talarico is untested statewide, but he’s widely popular.

What about the other top of the ticket races? Lt. Governor and Attorney General?

As of right now, Vikki Goodwin is the only Democrat who has filed to run for Lieutenant Governor. I like Vikki Goodwin a lot. She’s a member of the progressive caucus, and one time I met her and she gave me a coffee mug with her face on it (and it’s still in my rotation).

I’ve heard a lot of discussion about her candidacy, but are any of our four other top contenders a good match for this office?

Let’s say the top three contenders, because I don’t want to talk about Allred anymore.

I would say yes, but with a few caveats:

1. Beto has never served in the Texas Legislature.

2. Both Castro and Talarico have, and know what a powerful position it is.

Would one of them be willing to run for Lieutenant Governor? Arguably, Dan Patrick is much more powerful in Texas than Greg Abbott, especially when it comes to policy and law. I would say that if someone chose to run for this position over the US Senate, they would have a much bigger impact on the state of Texas and ultimately the nation.

Oh, but the egos. And where does that leave Vikki Goodwin?

Then there’s Attorney General. And before we get to that, we have to talk about Senator Nathan Johnson. I heard two rumors. One that Nathan Johnson might run for Governor, and another that he might run for Attorney General. I have no clue where he stands.

Joe Jaworski is expected to run for AG again.

Now, you don’t have to be an attorney to run for AG in Texas, but people like it if you are. Jaworski is an attorney. Johnson is an attorney. Beto is not. Talarico is not.

Casto is an attorney.

In fact, Joaquin Castro is such a good attorney that he served as an impeachment manager against Trump.

And what about Bobby Cole?

I’ve gotten no less than ten texts this week about people asking me about Bobbly Cole for Governor. If you missed it:

Everyone’s been asking me what I think about this guy, and here’s my response. He seems awesome. And it costs between $80 million and $100 million to run for Governor of the State of Texas. If he can do it, God bless him. Let’s talk again after his first financial reports. In the meantime, the four big names in this article can raise that kind of money.

In case you were wondering. Here’s what it takes to run for:

• Governor: $80 million+

• US Senate: $80 million+

• Lt. Governor: $20 million+

• Attorney General: $30 million+

So what does all this mean?

It means that 2026 has the potential to be an absolute shit show for the Texas GOP. They’re in complete disarray. Paxton might knock out Cornyn in the primary with a Bible and a felony rap sheet. Dan Patrick’s unraveling on right-wing radio, like a cartoon villain. Greg Abbott’s approval is soft, and the more he leans into Trumpism, the more suburban independents quietly back away.

Meanwhile, Texas Democrats finally have a bench. A real one. We’ve got rising stars, proven fighters, and people who actually believe in something. For the first time in a long time, we’ve got the right players. Now all we need is the right plan.

Because if all four of these big names, Castro, Beto, Talarico, and (fine, even Allred), cram themselves into one race, we’re going to blow the best shot we’ve had in decades. This isn’t musical chairs. There are four damn seats. We don’t need a brawl, we need a blueprint.

We’ve got the talent. We’ve got the issues. We’ve got the voters.

Let’s not let ego screw it up.

Let’s spread out. Let’s run smart. Let’s win some damn races.

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