An Early Look At The Texas Democratic Primaries
The candidates, the chaos, and the path to a blue Texas.
I’ve been like a dog on a bone this week on the Secretary of State’s filings. These are the candidates who have qualified for the ticket and will be on the ballot in March, and by golly, we’re going to have a real primary season here in Texas. It’s exciting.
While there are still 17 days left to file, and there are still many Democrats who have yet to file, we’re already getting a good look at some of these races. And I want to talk about some of the competitive races with multiple Democrats running that we’re going to revisit several times before March.
Here are my lists, if you’re trying to keep up:
Let’s get into it.
The Statewide races.
US Senate: As we’re all aware, James Talarico and Colin Allred are the two big Democratic names battling for this seat. There were a few others who didn’t have the name recognition, but it’s not certain they will file by December 8th. There are still two big question marks hanging out in this race, Jasmine Crockett and Beto O’Rourke.
Now that the gerrymandered maps have been thrown out, Crockett is still in her coveted TX30. That was a deciding factor in her possibly running for the State Senate. Then, we’ve talked about the risks she would take running for this seat in Texas and how it might galvanize Republicans to show up and vote against her. I don’t know what her internal polling is saying, but if I had to put money on it, she’ll probably run for re-election in TX30 in the long run.
Beto is a wild-card, because he’s so well-loved and respected in Texas, but he doesn’t want to be known as the guy who lost four times. If I had to bet, he probably gets a lot of pressure to jump into this race or that race, but the only statewide race that he’d probably consider would seem really winnable. And this year, that’s the Senate. But Talarico is also well-loved and respected, and if Talarico is the younger generation’s Beto, then it becomes like Mario and Luigi squaring off against each other. My bet is he stays out.
We’ll see how it pans out between Talarico and Allred, but my money is on Talarico.
Governor: As far as the primary is going to go, I’m going to make a prediction. Gina Hinojosa will win the primary. Bobby Cole will come in second, but there will not be a runoff. No runoff. I’m calling it now. And Andrew White will come in embarrassingly last, then probably switch parties in the next five years.
Attorney General: As of right now, there are two candidates in the race, Nathan Johnson and Joe Jaworski. Recently, there was a story that Joaquin Castro had planned on running for AG, and he, Beto, and Talarico were going to run as a slate, but Allred messed it up… or something like that. Honestly, I didn’t read the story; I just saw the online discourse, and I’m over it. In 2022, before Beto announced his run, I wrote a lengthy open letter to Castro about why he should run for Governor, with plenty of supporting arguments (y’all know me). There were similar rumors in 2020. I feel like we’ve spent the last five years talking about how the Castros can win in Texas, but they never run.
Johnson and Jaworski. If it comes down to those two, I don’t know who will win. Each one seems to have built their internal structures within Texas, and people are picking sides. They held their first debate in Denton about a week ago, and the gloves came off. While there wasn’t a lot of blood, it was messy. This is one of the most important races in Texas and one we should all be watching closely.
Comptroller: Yes, we’re going to have a competitive race for Comptroller between Michael Lange and Savant Moore. Right now, Lange has more name recognition because he ran for Land Commissioner in 2024, but Savant Moore is traveling the state and meeting with Democratic clubs and getting his name out there. This race deserves a complete breakdown (soon).
Railroad Commissioner: I’m not going to give a guess on this race. Do we spend enough time talking about how the Railroad Commission is one of the most evil agencies in Texas? It’s supposed to be the agency that regulates oil, but it’s rife with corruption, so it doesn’t regulate anything. Instead, all the Commissioners fill their pockets through back-room deals as Big Oil destroys our state. On the ballot will be Jon Rosenthal and Katherine Culbert.
Culbert ran in 2024 against Bill Burch, the more progressive candidate. Lone Star Left endorsed Bill Burch, but Culbert won. In the 2026 race, Rosenthal is again the more progressive candidate. And while Texas Democrats, as a voting bloc, tend to lean left, I wonder whether oil is an exception or whether Texas primary voters understand this seat well enough. Generally, in Texas, I would expect the more progressive candidate to come out on top. In this race, I’m not sure. Culbert has the name recognition from previously being on the ballot, and Rosenthal has the name recognition from being in the Texas House. We’ll have to talk more about this race, too, because oil is for the oil suckers.
Congressional races.
Trump is burning down the country, and everyone wants to fight. While these are only the competitive races we know about right now, I expect to add a few more to this list by December 8th. I also haven’t done a deep dive on many of these yet, so expect more analysis in future articles.
TX01: Nathaniel Moran’s (R) seat. Is this 2021 version of the map actually competitive for Democrats? Can East Texas pull above a 35% turnout in a midterm year? The Democrats running for this seat are Masika Ray, Dax Alexander, and Tracy Andrus.
TX09: Going by the old maps, TX09 is blue, but Al Green still filed for TX18, and a bunch of Republicans still filed for TX09, but let’s not let that stress us right now. Terry Virts dropped out of the Senate race and is now running for 09, so are Peter Filler and Marty Rocha.
TX10: Texas Senator Sarah Eckhardt has filed for this seat. There are other Democrats in the race; however, it is expected that Eckhardt will win this primary with flying colors in March.
TX12: Kenneth Morgan-Aguilera and Heli Rodriguez Prilliman.
TX15: Ada Cuellar is the more progressive candidate in this race. However, Bobby Pulido has the celebrity and the earned media. Because of that, it’s most likely that Pulido will have the upper hand in this primary election and go on to win the general. While it’s good that it’ll be a flip for Texas Dems in the long run, there’s absolutely a fear we’re sending another corporate Dem to Congress.
TX18: We’re going to need an entire article about the mess here, because it’s… a mess. Not only do Christian Menefee and Amanda Edwards have a runoff in January, which I expect Menefee to win, but Al Green has also decided to run in this race for the next cycle. We’ll get into it soon.
TX21: We recently held a Meet the Candidate with Regina Vanburg, but Gary Taylor and Dan Weber are also running in this seat. It should be an exciting primary.
TX24: Another Meet the Candidate issue we did was with Kevin Burge. Running against him in the primary is Jon Burchwald.
TX26: I’m going to have to do more Meet the Candidate episodes, like I did with Ernest Lineberger. They’ve all got primary contenders. His primary contender is Steven Shook.
TX31: Justin Early and Brian Trautner.
TX34: Y’all know I’ve talked about this race several times this cycle, because I like the primary challenger to the Democratic incumbent, who I would call Republican-lite. Vicente Gonzalez looks out best for corporate interests, and his primary challenger, Etienne Rosas, is running a people-focused campaign.
TX38: Melissa McDonough and Marvalette Hunter.
Legislative races.
There are some surprising races in here for me, and just like with the Congressional races, I expect this list to grow in the next few weeks.
SD11: This is the seat Mayes Middleton (R) is leaving to run for AG. Is it flippable in 2026? Maybe. Two Democrats have thrown their hat in and seem to think so, Shannon Dicely and Cameron Rollwitz.
HD26: This seat is for sure flippable if Ft. Bend County gets its ish together. (They know what that means.) In the race are Daniel Lee and Eliz Markowitz.
HD41: Three Democrats are running for this seat, Bobby Guerra (D) is retiring from, Seby Haddad, Julio Salinas, and Eric Holguin.
HD49: This was Gina Hinojosa’s seat. Running to replace her are Daniel Wang, Josh Reyna, Montserrat Garibay, Robin Lerner, and Kimmie Ellison. Yeah, this safe blue seat primary is packed. And it’s not the only one.
HD50: James Talarico’s seat is also up for grabs. Another packed race with Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch, Samantha Lopez Cupero, Jeremy Hendricks, Josh Hash, and Nathan Boynton.
HD56: Ashley Bean Thornton and Janessa Givens.
HD64: This will be a competitive seat next November, so I’m happy to see two Democrats duking it out to get the best one on the ticket. Those two are Julie Evans and Christie Wood.
HD71: Was 71 on our radar? I’d have to dig back through the numbers, but we certainly will have a primary race for it in March between BriTanya Brown and Diana Luna.
HD120: We’ve briefly talked about this race before, which will be interesting. On the incumbent side, you have Barbara Gervin Hawkins, the more-seasoned, moderate Democrat. Her challenger is coming from her left flank, the much younger and idealistic Bently Piaz. I really like Piaz because he has passion in his eyes and he really wants to make a difference, but the question is, will this district see his youth as inexperience, or will they want to stick with the status quo? It’ll be an interesting race to watch.
HD125: I don’t know what’s going to happen here or how many people are going to wind up filing for this district. Democratic incumbent Ray Lopez announced his retirement from this safe blue seat and promptly endorsed Donovon Rodriguez. However, Carlos Raymond, Chase Taylor, and Adrian Reyna are also running for this seat.
HD131: Long-time Democratic incumbent Alma Allen is retiring from this safe blue seat. She endorsed her son, Lawrence Allen, as her successor. Although three other Democrats planned to run for this seat. TJ Baker, Alejandra Cajero, and Crystal Dillard. I couldn’t find websites for any of the four for this race.
HD139: Whenever a primary challenger is challenging an incumbent, my question is always, “Why?” Was it a specific vote? A series of bad votes? Did the incumbent not show up for the community? Something else? Those are questions I’ve been trying to answer in this race with Dominique Payton’s challenge against Charlene Ward Johnson. I haven’t seen a good answer yet.
HD142: Maybe this will be the year Harold Dutton finally retires. I’ve heard he plans to run, but I haven’t seen any announcement or filings yet. Danny Norris and James Joseph have also filed for this seat.
The Left in Texas Podcast.
The Podcast will be back for the primaries. I’m thinking I’ll probably do it on video, with three or four candidates in one-hour segments each Friday from January until the primary election (that’s eight weeks). Since there are so many primary races, I’ll prioritize candidates with competitive primaries first. Stay tuned for more on that soon.
There’s still time for surprise filings, shifts in strategy, and unexpected twists.
The next seventeen days are going to be a whirlwind, and once filing closes, we’ll finally see the full battlefield laid out. But what’s already clear is that Democrats aren’t sitting out 2026. The bench is deep, the energy is real, and we have competitive primaries up and down the ballot, something Texas hasn’t seen in a long time.
This primary season is our chance to shape what kind of Texas we’re fighting for. I’ll keep tracking every filing, every flap, and every fascinating matchup as we go. Buckle up, y’all. The road to March starts now.
You’re to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
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Alito stayed the Texas map switch. Which means the map is back to 2025. But, briefs are due Monday by 5PM. It looks like the intent is to hear and decide before December 8. Talk about whirlwind!
Thank you for this analysis. We love to talk suppositions when we eat dinner and travel in the car. Today we had the privilege of meeting with some folks in the hinterlands (East Texas) who do not want to be forgotten in all of the notice being given in discussions or donations. Not that we can necessarily do anything about it but we talked about whether or not having primary opponents is a good thing.