Early Voting Numbers, Beto, And The Endorsement That Didn't Happen
A bellwether county, a messy primary, and choosing coalition over chaos.
Yesterday, Beto held a town hall in Arlington. Long-time Lone Star Left readers know how I’ve sometimes complained that Arlington is a major city yet gets overlooked by statewide campaigns and political events in favor of the nearby bigger cities, Dallas and Fort Worth.
I was so excited that I waited in line to meet Beto, and when it was my turn, I told him, “Thank you for coming to my city. It’s such a big deal. Arlington is a big, blue city, but we often get overlooked because we’re sandwiched between Dallas and Fort Worth, even though we’re like the 7th biggest city in the world.” 🤦🏻♀️
We’re actually the 7th biggest city in Texas.
He knew what I meant, though, and he talked about how on his voter registration tour, he’s stopping at bigger cities, like Denton and Waco, and how these aren’t the “BIG” cities, but they’re still important. Which I think should be a lesson for statewide political candidates, to help them garner support.
DFW isn’t just Dallas and Fort Worth. It’s also Arlington, Irving, Plano, Frisco, and so on. Statewide candidates shouldn’t just go to Austin. They should also go to Round Rock, Georgetown, and San Angelo. You get the point. As someone who has lived in a big, blue city that’s often felt neglected by Democrats, it really helps for voters to feel invested.
But let’s talk numbers, because speaking of Arlington….
Holy smokes, Tarrant County.
This is from the first two days of early voting in Tarrant County (from Chris Tackett).
What was it that Steve Bannon said? So goes Tarrant County, so goes Texas, so goes America. Yes, that’s exactly what he said, and he isn’t the first person to say it. But Tarrant County is absolutely fired up, and Democrats are outpacing Republicans for the first two days of early voting, and this is a good sign.
Tarrant has always been the county that tells you whether Texas is drifting or shifting. When Democrats vote late, they lose. When they vote early, they compete. And for the first time in a while, they’re setting the pace.
What about statewide?
Well, mostly the Texas Secretary of State sucks. Yes, Jane Nelson, I’m talking about you. So, they don’t have the complete data for either of the two days yet, but here is what they do have:
Democrat: 165,453
Republicans: 160,985
So far, Democrats statewide are up a smidge, but I’m not sure you can read much into it as a predictor of November. A few weeks ago, I went through the primary turnout vs. November turnout numbers to see if I could uncover a pattern and whether these primary numbers would help us make predictions. I didn’t see any patterns.
And as far as the Senate race or any other down-ballot race, there’s no way to tell who is benefiting or not from these turnout numbers.
From our friend, James Bedwell:
But today is only DAY THREE of early voting, which means you still have today and eight more days to early vote. My suggestion is to get on it. Early voting is always quicker, easier, and you get it out of the way.
Personally, I usually wait until the second week of early voting, when the lines have slowed down, and I’m almost always in and out within minutes.
Election day is in 12 more days.
The endorsement that didn’t happen.
We have to go back in time for this. Some of y’all were with me back then, some of y’all are newer friends.
It was June 2025, and much of my content focused on how the Texas Democratic Party was the most progressive Democratic Party in America. I’ve been saying that a long time, and I think with so many progressive candidates on the ballot this year, the rest of America is going to start catching on, finally. But it’s relevant to our story.
Not long after that, I wrote about how Texas needs a Mamdani, not just because we’re the most progressive, but I also talked about the economic conditions in this state, and how a working-class message would really resonate with Texas Democratic voters.
The day after that, the Dallas Morning News published an article outlining how Colin Allred, Joaquin Castro, Beto O’Rourke, and James Talarico met in secret to discuss which one of them would be the best choice to run for the Senate seat. Immediately after, I wrote, “Y’all Can’t All Be The Headliner,” where I basically said, “Allred needs to go away. We love Beto, but maybe someone else needs a turn.” And then I ran some polls asking readers where they thought certain politicians should run.
Less than 400 people answered these polls, so they are fun for us and give us an idea of what the most progressive are thinking, but I’m not sure they count for the wider Democratic-ecosphere.
Anyway, directly after that, Beto, James Talarico, and Joaquin Castro did their listening tour. I watched the full livestream of their event in San Antonio. You know, I’ve watched a lot of these things, and this one was one of the better ones I’ve seen in Texas. Just days after I spoke about how Texas needed a Mamdani, Beto spoke about Mamdani on the mic. It was by far the loudest cheer from the audience of the night.
The second loudest cheer was when James Talarico called out the DC Democrats. We’re not you. We’re scrappy. We’re Barbra Jordan, and LBJ, and Joaquin Castro, and Beto. We’re Texans. And what I felt with his message was, “We’re real progressives. We have spines.” And it seemed to echo the pieces I had put out just weeks earlier about Texas Democrats being more progressive than our non-progressive counterparts.
Then, Colin Allred announced he would run for the Senate.
And the chatter, both online and off, was that Talarico, Castro, and Beto all still wanted to run for the Senate.
As far as Beto went, many Texas Democrats were split between two camps. Either one, only Beto can save us. Or two, it’s time to give someone else a turn. After talking with a few friends, and wanting to avoid an ugly primary (stupid us), we wrote an open letter to James Talarico and Joaquin Castro, urging them to run for different seats.
What happened after that letter?
A lot of people got really mad at me for not including Beto in the letter. Talarico filed to run for Senate. Castro filed to run for re-election in his Congressional seat. And we still wound up with an ugly primary.
About a week before James Talarico announced he would run for Senate, I had a long phone conversation with him. We talked about him running for higher office, and I told him then that I would more than likely endorse him.
Hindsight being 20/20, I should have just endorsed him when he announced, but with the backlash I got from not including Beto in that letter, I hesitated. I wanted to see who else would jump into the race first.
But who could have known this primary race would have gotten this ugly?
It makes me sad, more than anything, because I think that both candidates are highly qualified and talented individuals in their own right. But it really has been an eye-opening experience for me, not as far as the candidates are concerned, but more about social media, the spread of misinformation, and the level of civic engagement for the average voter.
And for those of you on social media, you likely know that I was unwillingly pulled into the fray, but I’ve tried to keep my hands as clean as possible. Although when it’s all over, I may have to do a tell-all. To the “influencers” threatening to sue me, the truth is the absolute defence against defamation, and we may have to go to discovery. But right now, we have primaries going on.
I’ve been asked directly why I haven’t formally endorsed in this race, and the reason is that I’ve spent months debunking misinformation and talking publicly about the race on social media, so it’s probably obvious where I personally land. I plan to vote for James Talarico. But the primary has become so divisive that I didn’t want to pour gasoline on a fire. If Jasmine Crockett wins, I will support her fully and enthusiastically, because she’s talented and would represent Texas well.
My choice isn’t about personalities or identity. It’s about where I believe Texas Democrats are ideologically right now and which candidate best speaks to the working-class populism so many voters are clearly hungry for. I think James Talarico speaks directly to that.
I don’t regret caring this much, even when it’s been frustrating.
We actually have a rare problem in Democratic politics. We aren’t picking “the lesser of two evils.” We are picking between two popular, well-qualified Democrats, who will both do the job well. The fact that people are paying attention, showing up early, and demanding a direction is actually a sign of life.
Soon, voters will decide for all of us. I’ll be happy when this primary is over. It’s been one of the messiest in Texas Democratic politics I can remember. And when it’s over, it’s no more my side, your side, it’ll be building and protecting the coalition we need to win in November.
Primaries test ideas. General elections test seriousness.
So vote. Then log off. Then help whoever wins beat Republicans in November.
February 27, 2026: Final Day to Early Vote
March 3, 2026: Primary Election
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
This is the first election I’ve had your analysis, and it has made me a better voter.
Thanks to you I can tell my friends across Texas about their primary candidates. I’ve forwarded dozens of your district specific essays selectively to help my friends choose their best candidate.
LoneStarLeft is such a great tool!
Thank you for your labor of love. I know it’s exhausting.
Don’t worry about the haters- we’ll drive them back into the dark corners again real soon💪
The early voting numbers show that people are straight-up LIT about what's going on. I expect the same results elsewhere in the country as well.
As far as the vitriol for the Senate primary goes, I think you would do well to post regularly a political PSA for all Democrats using the commercial airline pilot metaphor I suggested before. People have got to get past this "fall in love with a candidate" mentality and be more hard headed about the stakes involved. And for God's sake, get people to get off social media as their primary source of news as well.