Five Seats That Could Break The Country
What happens in Austin won’t stay in Texas.
We’re gonna walk through this, nice and slow. Yesterday, the Quorum Report published how Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, former AG Eric Holder, and DNC Chair Ken Martin spoke to the Texas House Democrat Caucus about a possible quorum break to stop Trump’s gerrymandering plans.
The implications of this are enormous, not just for Texas but for the entire country.
Today, the orange one said he wanted to pick up five Republican seats in Texas. Our current maps are 25 (R) / 13 (D), and we are all aware of how gerrymandered they are.
There are many questions we don’t have the answers to.
Would gerrymandering these already stretched maps backfire on Republicans, giving us a dummymander?
In a perfect world. In a hypothetical scenario. But we don’t know for sure. Today, Split Ticket revisited the GOP’s 2003 redistricting strategy and laid out how that same blueprint could be used in 2025 to wipe us off the map.
There haven’t been any maps published in the redistricting portal yet, and I expect there won’t be until after the Session is called to order. You can guarantee right now, a bunch of cowboy-booted, Aggie ring-wearing Republican lawyers are holed up in some Austin boardroom, feeding voter data into an AI program with one hand and texting Trump’s people with the other.
A dummymander isn’t a sure thing, and we won’t know we have one on our hands until after they publish the map, after the Session starts. If you’re beginning to feel queasy, I think that’s normal. That’s why we’re going through this slowly.
Why does the gaveling in part matter?
They would use the same rules they agreed to and voted on as a body at the beginning of the 89th Legislative Session. Here is the current rule book.
This is what you need to know:
Two-thirds of the House shall constitute a quorum. Republicans only have 86 members. Democrats have 62. They need 100 members from any party to constitute a quorum.
If a member skips out without official leave, they can be fined $500 per day. Math. That’s $15,000 for one Democrat for the full 30-day Session, $930,000 for all 62, just on fines, and they can’t be paid from campaign accounts.
They’ll also be charged for the costs of tracking them down. And arrested by the sergeant-at-arms to drag them back to the chamber.
They can even be expelled. However, that requires two-thirds of the votes. Republicans only have 86.
Republicans can’t pass a redistricting map without a quorum.
Without 100 members present, the Texas House can’t legally conduct business.
This raises several other questions.
Won’t Governor Abbott just call another special session after this one?
Yes. He will do precisely that. He’s done it before. He called three special sessions in 2021 to get the redistricting done that year. Four special sessions to get vouchers done in 2023 (even though he didn’t get it that year). But Mango Mussolini cracked the whip.
And we don’t even know for sure that Democrats plan on breaking quorum. All we know is what Scott Braddock at the Quorum Report said. There are five days until the Session starts.
Let’s say hypothetically they do, Abbott will call Sessions after Sessions, until the GOP gets their maps.
Take a deep breath.
In 2021, the third Session ended on October 19, 2021, and Abbott signed the new maps by October 25. Some lawsuits attempted to prevent them from taking effect for the 2022 primary season, which generally began with the filing in mid-November to mid-December. However, the court dismissed those lawsuits.
Hypothetically, if Democrats were going to break quorum, they would need to stay away longer than one special-called Session.
$930,000 in fines. That’s not counting room and board for 62 people, who’d have to walk away from their homes, families, jobs, and lives for weeks. Maybe months. That’s a lot to ask of anyone.
Millions of dollars. Maybe even millions and millions. Who will pay for that? The National Party, one would assume. You know, former Chair Hinojosa always said the reason we weren’t winning was because the National Party wasn’t forking over millions into Texas. Wouldn’t that be ironic if they did this year? Of course, money has always been an issue, but it’s been far from the only problem.
If the national is willing to give millions to our Legislative Democrats to break quorum, they should also heavily support organizing here on the ground and work harder for the John Lewis Voting Rights Act in Congress.
We have the numbers to flip this state. We always have.
If Legislative Democrats choose to break quorum to stop Trump’s plans of taking Congress in 2026, they may save America.
Is that dramatic?
Watch this press conference yesterday with Hakeem Jeffries and the entire Texas Democratic Congressional delegation.
Jeffries began with the floods in the Hill Country and the resulting deaths, including dozens of children. Recovery efforts are ongoing, yet here we all are, talking about how Republicans plan to redraw the maps to take more power. It is shameful that Abbott would use this crisis at a time like this.
🚨🚨 Greg Abbott can use emergency powers to get aid to flood victims.
Everyone should know this because Republicans are already using this talking point. Greg Abbott can utilize emergency aid to assist flood victims. Just like in 2021, when Governor Abbott used emergency powers to fund the border wall.
Back at the press conference, Jefferies vowed Democrats will fight back hard to protect fair elections and Texans’ voices. Which I hope means more than just breaking quorum for our Legislative Democrats.
DCCC Chair Suzan DelBene warned that the redistricting plan may backfire by making more districts competitive, endangering Republicans instead. Which I thought was an interesting comment, even implying that a quorum break isn’t certain.
The Democrats are furious, and they’re calling it unconstitutional, racist, and authoritarian. They’re all vowing to fight it every way possible. But what does it all mean? I guess we’ll find out in five more days.
Then there’s Gavin Newsom.
California Governor Gavin Newsom has been making the podcast rounds over the last 24-hours. He’s sat down with
(whom I love), Republican podcaster Shawn Ryan, and Pod Save America.And he’s been blabbering left and right about redistricting, even telling the guys on Pod Save America the different ways they have legislatively to do it. California currently has nine Republican seats. Obviously, Newsom is running for president in 2028.
All of the “what-ifs?”
What if Texas successfully gerrymanders its maps to favor Republicans, then California successfully gerrymanders its maps to favor Democrats? Will all red and blue states follow suit? Well, just those with one-party majority governments. What if this is the start of the second Civil War? Okay, now I’m being dramatic.
What are the big “what-ifs?”
What if Democrats decide not to break quorum, and the maps that are drawn aren’t a dummymander? We’re six months into Epstein’s bestie’s second term, and still have 18 months until the midterms. If he rigs the maps, and he wins, he will continue to go unchecked for another 24 months. How does that make you feel?
What if National Democrats stab Texas in the back again? We trust Texas Democrats (most of them), but we don’t see them on TV bashing Zohran Mamdani. Do National Dems even know that Texas is a progressive state? What if they try to indoctrinate our people into centrism? Gah, what a nightmare that would be.
What if Texas flips anyway? What if they gerrymander the hell out of it, and we still win? What if we organize, fund, and run the damn table, even in Trump-drawn districts?
What if the Democratic Party finally acts like a national party here? What if, for the first time, they stop treating Texas like a donor state and start treating it like the front line of American democracy?
What if Texas Democrats save America?
This story is still unfolding.
We don’t have all the answers yet, but the clock is ticking. The maps haven’t dropped. The gavel hasn’t hit. The quorum hasn’t broken. And the national party hasn’t written the check.
There’s a hell of a lot still to talk about strategy, lawsuits, pressure points, organizing, money, and what it takes to win a state Republicans are trying to carve up like brisket at a donor dinner.
So stay tuned. Stay loud. Stay ready.
Because if this is the fight to save democracy, it’s starting right here in Texas.
July 25: First day of special session
August 23: Last day of special session
November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
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Thank you for the education, Michelle. I always enjoy my "Michelle Fix."
Wow! Ugh. I think most Ds are looking for a bold move. Something that takes some Texas-sized cajones and I think this would do it. But that’s easy for me to say. It’s a big personal sacrifice for all them. Ugh (again).