Stop Thinking Small: There Are More Than 14 Seats In Play
If Democrats overperform, it won’t stop at the obvious seats.
The other day, I wrote an article about 14 Texas House seats that might flip. And I received multiple emails and messages, “Well, what about this seat?” or “Such and so seat is flippable. You should check it out.” And the truth is, if Democrats overperform by 15 points, or if an extra 2 million people vote blue this year, we should be watching for a lot more than 14 seats. Or we could crash and burn like 2024, but I’m expecting it to be a better year.
And instead of talking about the 14, which are most likely in play, I’ve read your emails, and we’re going to talk about the entire lay of the land.
We’re not going to get into all 150 seats, as there are plenty of Democrats running unopposed or against Republicans in +50 (D) seats. Like:
That’s 46 Democrats that are either running unopposed or whose seats are so safe that the Republicans running against them might as well be gnats.
Then there are the House runoffs:
HD37:
HD41:
HD49:
HD97:
HD100:
HD125:
HD131:
HD149
We’ve already discussed a few of these runoffs (HD41 and HD100). We’ll get into the rest of them in the coming weeks, because early voting will be here before we know it. I expect all of the seats above, except HD97, to be blue. And not to say that we can’t flip HD97. Maybe we can. It wasn’t on my original list of 14.
HD97 is flippable only in a bigger Democratic wave. It is not one of the first dominoes. It is one of the later ones. If Democrats are flipping HD97, then they are not merely having a good year. They are having the kind of year where Tarrant County suburbia is breaking hard enough to redraw the whole map. Maybe that happens in November. Maybe not.
But it’s all a numbers game.
There are 150 House seats. Democrats need 76 to be in the majority. They currently have 62, thus the need for 14. We have the 46 who are safe ⬆️, plus the nine incumbents who I didn’t include who are also safe. They’re in competitive elections, but seriously, none of them are at risk of losing.
That puts us at 55. Then the seven runoffs I said will be blue (not including HD97) in November ⬆️, and that’s 62. Right? Math.
So, we need to flip 14 seats to reach 76, giving Democrats control of the Texas House.
Here are the seats we previously discussed:
Harris County: HD133, HD138
Dallas County: HD108, HD112
Tarrant County: HD94, HD96, HD99
Bexar County: HD118
Nueces County: HD34
Cameron County: HD37
Brazoria County: HD24, HD25
Brazos County: HD14
Bastrop County: HD17
Those are seats I absolutely feel are worth fighting for, but as so many readers reminded me, there are many other seats worth fighting for as well. And if, per chance, we have some miracle Democratic year where we overperform across the board +15 to +25 points, we should get them all on our radar.
Harris County.
If we’re talking Harris County beyond HD133 and HD138, the next seats I’d put on the radar are HD127 first, then HD132 and HD150 as longer-shot wave seats. I would not put them in the same bucket as HD133/HD138, but I would not ignore them either.
HD127 is the strongest “next one up” in Harris. The district is also 52.8% non-Anglo overall, with 27.7% Hispanic and 19.3% Black, which makes it less likely to be a classic white-flight suburban fortress. Michelle Williams is the Democrat on the ballot.
HD132 is another one to watch, but it is more of a wave-seat than a likely-seat. Sara McGee is the Democrat on the ticket and has been running a hard campaign all year. This district is the kind of place Democrats could make relevant if the suburbs move hard enough, but it is still a clear second-tier target, not a core one.
HD150 is demographically more competitive than the topline vote suggests. If Democrats are having the kind of year where even the outer Houston map starts wobbling, HD150 is one of the seats that could enter the conversation. A’Yonna Kellum is the Democrat on the ballot.
Dallas County.
HD108 and HD112 are the last two red House seats in all of Dallas County. There isn’t much left to flip, and those are big targets. The pressure is on.
Tarrant County.
We already talked about HD94, HD96, and HD99. Those are your real, frontline fights. But then the second-tier flips will be HD97, HD91, and HD93. We already covered HD97 ⬆️.
HD93 should still be on people’s radar. This was where Nate Shatzline was, but he retired from the Texas House to be a podcaster. Ericka Lomick is the Democrat on the ballot here.
HD91 is tougher. The Republican baseline is stronger, and Democrats have more ground to make up. But again, if we are seriously talking about a +15 to +25 environment statewide, this is the kind of district that at least belongs on a long list. Yisak Worku is the Democrat on the ballot.
Collin County.
Collin County is where you find out if suburban Republicans are actually breaking. They’re also going through a large demographic shift currently, where white flight is at play. We’ll see how it impacts politics over the next several elections.
HD66 is probably the biggest one to watch. It’s still Republican. Democrats are still behind. But the margins are not overwhelming, and the demographic trends are moving in the direction Democrats need. Sandeep Srivastava is on the Democratic ticket.
HD67 is a similar story. Almost identical political environment, similar margins, similar trajectory. If HD66 is competitive, HD67 probably is too. If HD66 isn’t moving, HD67 probably isn’t either. These two rise and fall together. Jordan Wheatley is on the ticket here.
A step beyond that is HD89. More Republican. More ground to make up. But still worth putting on the board if we’re talking about a true overperformance cycle. Angie Carraway is the Democrat on the ballot.
Denton County.
Denton never gets as much attention as Tarrant and Collin, but it’s been moving, and Denton Democratic Chair Delia Parker Mims works hard. There are a couple of seats here that could become real conversation pieces in the right environment.
The margins in HD63 are closer than people assume, and the district is not as locked-in as older Republican strongholds. Denise Wooten is on the ballot here.
A step behind HD63 is HD65, but it is still worth watching. There’s more ground to make up, but not an impossible amount if turnout is high and suburban movement continues. Detrick Deburr is on the ballot here.
HD106 is deeper-wave territory, but it would be nice to get rid of Jared Patterson. This is tougher, but still within the realm of “put it on the board and see what happens.” Joe Mayes is on the ballot here.
HD64 is where I would draw the line. Too red, too far, too much ground to cover. If we’re flipping HD64, then we’re not talking about a wave. We’re talking about a political earthquake. Julie Evans is the Democrat here.
Bexar County.
Bexar is more interesting because after HD118, there are still a couple of seats that at least belong on the board.
If you want the clearest “next one up” in Bexar after HD118, it is HD121. This one is not deeply red. Zack Dunn is the Democratic nominee. If Democrats are having a strong year in Bexar, this should absolutely be in the conversation.
HD122 is a little farther out, but I would still consider it a larger-wave seat. But it is also not the kind of seat Democrats should ignore in a true overperformance cycle. Shelley Nickels is the Democrat here. If HD122 is suddenly getting close, that means the San Antonio suburbs are moving harder than usual.
Williamson County.
Williamson is one of the more interesting counties on the map because this is where suburban drift could turn into something more if the environment gets rough enough for Republicans.
If you are looking for the best additional Williamson seat, it is HD52. It is still Republican, but it is sitting in that uncomfortable zone where a stronger Democratic year could make things tighter than Republicans would like. This seat likely belonged on the list of my origional 14, Chris Jimenez is the Democrat on the ballot.
HD20 is harder. But if we are seriously talking about a +15 to +25 kind of environment, then yes, it belongs on the long list. Not because it is likely. Because it is the kind of seat that starts wobbling only when the whole map is wobbling. Matthias-Jonah Early is the Democrat on the ballot.
So where does that leave us?
We started with 14 seats. The must-haves. The ones that actually decide control of the Texas House.
And now we’re at 30.
Thirty seats that, in the right environment, could flip.
Does that sound like a lot? I don’t know. Texas has 31.5 million people.
Four of the ten largest cities in the country are here. Entire suburbs are shifting. Counties that were written off a decade ago are now competitive. And every cycle, we see a little more movement, a little more pressure, a little more cracking in places that used to feel locked in.
We don’t need all 30.
We need 14.
Fourteen.
We can do it if enough people vote. It’s the same problem every year.
Fourteen seats out of 150. Fourteen out of 30 that are on the board. Fourteen districts where turnout shows up, where persuasion works, where candidates connect, where the environment breaks just enough in our direction.
That’s the whole ballgame.
And I didn’t even get into the whole map.
Things are happening in Bell County that people should be paying attention to. There are organizers out in West Texas doing work that, frankly, has surprised me in the best way.
If enough pieces start moving, then this map we’ve been looking at?
It gets a whole lot bigger.
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