Texas Is Watching And Texas Is Furious
Lawmakers may not care but the rest of us are paying attention.
Ever wonder why Republicans aren’t taking you, or this redistricting process, seriously? Take a good look at who they put on the Redistricting Committee. (You can see all of the committee members here.)
Cody Vasut (R-HD25): rural Gulf Coast
Ryan Guillen (R-HD31): rural South Texas
Cole Hefner (R-HD05): rural East Texas
Hillary Hickland (R-HD55): rural Central Texas
Tom Oliverson (R-HD130): suburban Harris County
David Spiller (R-HD68): rural North Central Texas plains
Carl Tepper (R-HD84): rural Panhandle
Terry Wilson (R-HD20): rural Central Texas
Texas is an urban state. 83.7% of Texas’ population lives in an urban county, making it the 15th most urban state in America. Yet the people drawing the maps? Almost entirely from rural districts
This isn’t an accident. By stacking the Redistricting Committee with rural Republicans, House leadership is making it clear. They don’t care about the cities, the suburbs, or the millions of Texans who live there. They care about protecting their power, not representing the state.
The big August 1 hearing.
As I watched the hearing on the July 4th floods, I noticed that every social media platform was abuzz with discussion about the hearing on Friday. Congress members and Legislators arranged for buses from Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio to head to Austin to have as many people as possible show up at these hearings.
On social media, the California-born group True Texas Project, an organization with documented ties to white nationalist figures, was begging supporters to turn out in defense of these racially discriminatory maps.
However, by the time registration closed for testifying on the bill, 473 had registered against, and 36 had registered in favor.
As I was listening, one person who initially registered in favor changed their registration to against. And another accidentally registered twice. So, they actually had 34 in favor. Of course, that doesn’t include the testimony that was submitted online.
Republicans plan to still vote on these maps anyway.
Despite the few people in favor testifying at the hearing compared to those against it, at least one proponent managed to secure a spot on every panel at the beginning of the hearing. Of course, the Republicans arranged that to make sure they got everyone in favor on record for when it winds up in court.
Everyone needs to take a deep breath for a minute.
Last night’s article about the floods went out late, later than usual, and I didn’t get to bed until much later than I should have. So no, I did not wake up at a respectable hour this morning.
When I finally checked my phone, I had three messages naming the two State Senators who are refusing to break quorum. One message asked about the logistics of breaking quorum during a hearing. Another expressed concern about the Committee’s plan to vote on the maps at the end of today’s meeting. If those are just the people who reached out, I imagine everyone is freaking out about this redistricting process right now.
Let me be very clear. No matter what happens today, or tomorrow, or next week, or even in 2026, we are going to be okay. Eventually. Unless there’s a nuclear war. Or Zombies. But let’s not spiral straight into worst-case scenarios just yet.
Earlier this week, I said this would happen because Legislative Republicans are nothing if not predictable. They were always going to hold one final hearing in Austin, then vote on the maps at the end. And now, unless something changes, they’ll likely bring the maps to the House floor on Monday.
And actually, the Committee didn’t vote on the maps at the end of the hearing. Instead, they scheduled another Committee hearing for tomorrow morning at 9 am to vote on it then.
The House gavels in at 10 am on Monday.
The House isn’t conducting any other business right now. Aside from the joint hearings on the floods, no other bills are being heard, only redistricting. And that’s intentional. Republicans are keeping the calendar clear because they’re worried Democrats might walk. They’re not even pretending otherwise.
It’s not subtle. Articles titled “Will Democrats Flee?” and “Could Democrats Bust Quorum?” have already circulated. House Democrats have held press conferences and given interviews openly stating that breaking quorum is on the table. Witness after witness at these hearings has urged them to do it, saying flat-out, “We expect you to walk.”
But make no mistake, walking out isn’t easy. It would take 51 House Democrats leaving the chamber and staying gone for weeks, possibly until November or even December. And they’d have to do it in a political climate that’s starting to resemble the years before the Civil War.
Do we have 51 House Democrats willing to break quorum?
Honestly, I don’t know. Democrats have been extremely tight-lipped. There are 62 of them in the Texas House. If they don’t walk, we’ll know they couldn’t rally 51 to take the leap. Maybe we’ll eventually learn who held the line and who didn’t. But as of now, no names have surfaced, and no one’s talking.
Texas Democratic voters deserve to know. If there’s no quorum break, that list will leak. One way or another, it always does.
But when would it happen?
It would have to happen before the floor vote, specifically before the Second Reading. That’s when the bill, in this case, the map, hits the House floor for full debate. Right now, that’s expected to happen Monday. The House Calendar isn’t out yet. It’ll drop at the last moment, but we should expect HB4 to be on there.
Second Reading is the big fight. That’s where Democrats can try to kill the bill with Points of Order (POOs), or offer amendments to slow it down or improve it. Every Republican will vote for it regardless, and then it moves to Third Reading, which usually takes place the following day.
Now, Democrats could technically break quorum at any point in this process. But walking after the Second Reading is politically risky. By then, the biggest hurdle will have been cleared. If they participate in debate and vote, then walk, it looks like theater.
And about these maps…
This ⬆️is what these maps look like. It’s the data Republicans used to get to 30 Republican seats and eight Democratic seats. They used the 2020 census data and the 2024 election results. I told you the other day how dumb this may be for Republicans in the long run.
I want to show you something else. Under the same map, the current proposed Republican map, with the 2018 Senate turnout:
Under those circumstances, Democrats don’t lose any seats. And if Trump is 10 points underwater in Texas, we’re looking at picking up another five on top of it. A dummymander? Only if voters show up like they’ve never shown up before. I don’t know the exact turnout numbers we’re looking at yet, but I’m working on that, and I’ll have that answer soon.
No matter what happens, we’re going to have to work our asses off for 2026.
Relying on Texas to have the best turnout they’ve ever had, even though they’ve always sucked at turnout, seems like a scary risk. For what it’s worth, I believe in us.
But will we make it to 2026?
I want to draw your attention to a few moments of public testimony, just a handful among many, but ones that speak volumes.
The first, from Friday, came from a woman who delivered a powerful, assertive, and emotionally charged critique of the redistricting process. Her testimony was raw and direct, so much so that Rep. Terry Wilson (R) accused her of making threats. She didn’t. But they tried to police her tone anyway, as if frustration itself were dangerous.
Now compare that to a testimony from earlier this week, given by a man from Arlington.
Like the first, his remarks contained no threats. But they did walk a rhetorical edge. He spoke with open disillusionment with the entire political system. He made clear that gerrymandering might be the final straw for many Texans, and his tone suggested a readiness for change that doesn’t rely on elections or institutions. He didn’t threaten anything. He didn’t need to. The message was clear.
These weren’t isolated cases. Across multiple hearings, I’ve heard older Texans, folks in their eighties and beyond, speak openly about revolution as a foregone conclusion.
Maybe none of this surprises you. Maybe it should.
Because what’s becoming obvious, even to those in power, is that Texas has a lot more leftists than people think, and those leftists are getting louder, more organized, and more fed up.
Since 2020, the Democratic base in Texas has shifted further left. These hearings didn’t radicalize anyone. They revealed just how radicalized people already are by decades of injustice.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
About the Redistricting hearing.
Listen to Todd Hunter lay out the bill/map, explaining that basically all of the districts in Texas were altered, but five were the target. He explained it was done with partisan considerations, and they’ve taken trends (like Hispanics voting more red) into consideration.
And I also want you to see Chris Turner’s (D) questioning of Todd Hunter at the end of the night. It almost seems like the numbers on Hunter’s maps might not be on the up-and-up, although Hunter claims they are. There may be something there that the lawyers can address.
Here’s Jasmine Crockett:
And here’s an ex-Republican:
And the Mayor of Denton drove down to Austin to let everyone know he follows the True Texas Project:
There are still hours of testimony I haven’t clipped yet.
Dozens more stories, data points, and righteous fury that deserve a signal boost. I’ll be posting more clips and breakdowns on social media over the weekend as I catch my breath and dig back in.
It’s been a long two days. And the Committee votes at 9 am sharp.
The big question now? What happens on Monday? That’s when the House gavels in. That’s when we see whether Democrats hold the line or whether Republicans get away with it again.
Stay loud. Stay organized.
August 23: Last day of special session
November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
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Who are the two senators who won’t play?