The 2026 Texas Democratic Primaries: Part Four

Who’s safe, who’s flippable, and who needs a miracle?

Back at it. If you’re just joining us for this series, you can find the first three parts here:

• Part One

• Part Two

• Part Three

And if you’re keeping score of the Democratic primary races we’ve already discussed:

• US Senate

• Governor

• Lt. Governor

• Attorney General

• Comptroller

• Land Commissioner

• SBOE05, SBOE07, SBOE08, and SBOE13

• SD05, SD11, and SD21

• TX01, TX04, TX05, TX08, TX09, TX10, TX11, TX12, TX14, TX15, TX16, TX17, TX18, and TX20

As a reminder for newer readers and candidates who might be skimming, I’m keeping a list of all Democrats’ websites and social media I can find and checking these pages often. You can find those lists here:

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

If a candidate’s website or Instagram isn’t on there yet, it just means I haven’t found it in a Google search yet, and you are free to message me with it.

But let’s get into it, because we have so many more Democratic primaries to talk about.

TX21

This was Chip Roy’s seat. He wants to be the next Texas AG so he can get away with committing crimes like his idol, Ken Paxton. Twelve Republicans are running to replace him.

The Democrats on the ballot are Regina Vanburg, Gary Taylor, and Kristin Hook. We previously did a Meet the Candidate article with Regina Vanburg and Kristin Hook ran for this seat in 2024.

TX21 can be flipped with a Democratic overperformance of +8 to +10. This district is a classic gerrymander, with chunks of blue cities diluted by exurbs and rural areas. Democrats would have to flood the Austin and San Antonio portions with turnout and run a modern, well-funded campaign with strong digital and field operations.

The right primary candidate will be pro-choice, loud and clear. They will also need to raise serious money. This is a TV and digital district, not just yard signs. They will still need to avoid zeroing out the rural parts.

TX22

Because I’m expecting Democrats to overperform in 2026, I’m hoping this will be one of the easier pickups, needing roughly +6–8 points. This is a fast-growing, diverse suburb with big Asian and Latino populations, and lots of college-educated voters. One of the clearest “future blue” districts.

Troy Nehls ran away scared. Now his twin brother, Trevor Nehls, plans on giving it a try. However, it would be fair to wonder if Trevor is actually Troy in disguise.

Running for this seat are Marquetta Greene-Scott, Chris Fernandez, Robert’ Puga’ Thomas, Pearl Vuorinen, and Sterling Gadison.

Flipping this seat in November will take a massive turnout in non-white, immigrant, and younger communities. The candidate will need to run an explicitly pro-public-schools, pro-abortion rights, anti-book-ban campaign. And they will need to de-fang GOP economic spin by hammering property taxes, insurance costs, and corporate greed.

The right primary candidate should have a multilingual outreach plan and an organizing mindset.

TX23

Republican incumbent Tony Gonzales cheated on his wife with a staffer, like so many other Republicans frequently do. What the staffer later did was horrific. (RIP 🙏🏻)

Gonzales does have a few primary opponents.

Running on the Democratic side are Bruce Richardson, Katy Stout, Santos Limon, and Gretel Enck.

Depending on turnout patterns, Democrats would only need to overperform by +6 to +9 points to flip this district. This is one of the most geographically massive districts in the country, stretching from San Antonio’s western edge all the way down the border and out through West Texas. It’s heavily Latino, historically competitive, and constantly manipulated by Republicans to dilute Democratic strength.

The path to flipping it would be high Latino turnout, a strong economic-populism message, and San Antonio margins matter the most. Candidate should be fluent in border life, Spanish-language outreach is essential, and have clear pro-worker, pro-choice, pro-democracy positions.

TX24

2026 has to be the year we finally get rid of Beth Van Duyne. It has to be. Democrats would only need to overperform by about +5 points to flip this seat.

There are three Democrats on the ballot. TJ Ware, Kevin Burge, and Jon Burchwald.

Actually flipping this seat in November will need to turn suburban anti-MAGA fatigue into votes, not just social-media posts. It’ll need a campaign that centers on schools, healthcare, cost of living, and basic competence. The key here will be to leverage local Democratic gains down-ballot.

I think the right candidate would be someone who is a compelling communicator, has a strong stance on education and trans/LGBTQ rights, and is good at pro-worker economic framing.

TX25

This is Republican incumbent Roger Williams dis’ district. This gerrymandered district was drawn to conservative rural and small-town areas around bits of Ft. Worth. Solidly Republican, with pockets of blue growing.

For this district, of course, let’s be hopeful, but this may be more of a long-term project. Democrats would really have to work on building a “farmers, teachers, nurses, and small-business owners” coalition.

The two Democrats running here are William Marks and Dione Sims.

Primary voters should look for candidates who focus on bread-and-butter issues and have zero tolerance for those who talk down to rural voters.

TX26

I can’t wait to dig deep into this race because the Republican incumbent, Brandon Gill, is a character, and there is a lot of material on him. He does have a primary candidate.

The Democrats running for this seat are Ernest Lineberger and Steven Shook.

What if next year, Democrats see a big-ass blue wave and overperform +8 to +10 points? Then, this seat would probably flip. This area is a rapidly growing suburban district with a big student population (UNT, TWU) and young families.

Flipping it in November would mean turning universities and young renters into a turnout machine, cutting into GOP margins among white suburban parents over schools and abortion, and having a strong social media presence.

Primary voters should look for a clear communicator with a campus presence and a pro-choice, pro-LGBTQ stance.

TX27

I don’t want to talk about “long-shot” districts so much, because I don’t want you to get in your head that they’re impossible. Going to the moon was impossible, but they did it before many of us were even born. TX27 is a long shot and could require as much as a +15-point overperformance by Democrats to flip. But we went to the moon.

This is a coastal district with refineries, ports, tourism, and a sizable Latino population. GOP-leaning but not monolithic. Michael Cloud (R) is the incumbent; he does have a primary opponent.

The Democrats running here are “Stock” Castro-Mendoza, Tanya Lloyd, and Wayne Raasch.

Actually flipping this district would take driving up Latino turnout in urban and near-urban areas. There would be a need to organize around environmental harms, storm recovery, and economic insecurity.

TX28

Henry Cuellar’s district. We’ve talked about this before. We’ll talk about it again.

Andrew Vantine and Ricardo Villarreal are the Democrats who made it to the ballot.

Can Cuellar’s family finally be dethroned in Webb County?

TX29

This is Sylvia Garcia’s (D) seat; it’s a safe blue seat. Former state House Rep Jarvis Johnson is challenging her for this seat based on demographic changes following the 2025 redistricting. Robert Slater is also vying for this seat in March.

I’ll have to dig into this race more soon. Obviously, Garcia has done a good job in Congress, but now that her district has a higher Black population and lower Hispanic population, will representation matter more than her accomplishments? We’ll have to wait to find out.

TX30

This was Jasmine Crockett’s seat; she has seemingly anointed Pastor Freddie Haynes in her place, but Rodney Labruce and Barbara Caraway are also in the race for this blue seat (so are a few Republicans).

TX31

This is Republican incumbent John Carter’s seat. Carter has nine primary challengers (lol).

Running on the Democratic side are Justin Early and Stuart Whitlow.

I’m not going to count this one out, but we would need like a +8 to +10 overperformance to flip this seat. This district was once rock-red but is now rapidly changing due to suburban growth and younger voters.

Flipping this district in November would take a high turnout in Williamson County suburbs and among younger families, hammering local issues, like property taxes, school funding, sprawl, and transportation. And candidates would need to tie the GOP to extremism on abortion, schools, and democracy.

In the primary campaign, candidates will need to organize a plan beyond yard signs and to appeal to suburban parents.

TX32

I was very unhappy with Marc Veasey’s voting record in Congress. Marc Veasey isn’t running for TX32 because it will need a +10-point Democratic overperformance in a year when Democrats are expected to overperform. Instead, he’s choosing to run against progressive champion Alisa Simmons, which has ignited the fury of progressives in Tarrant County. But we’ll talk about that later.

Nine Republicans are running for this seat.

Anthony Bridges and Dan Barrios are the Democrats on the ballot.

Turnout in Dallas County will be critical to regaining this seat. The right candidate will need to be a strong fundraiser who also invests in down-ballot races and runs coordinated campaigns. They’ll need to be serious about democracy and voting rights as a campaign message.

TX33

DC ruins Texas Democrats. I’ve decided. Okay, maybe not all. Perhaps some of them were ruined before they sprinted off for a big paycheck and insider trading, but the lib-coded identity politics already playing out in this race is gross.

This is a safe blue seat. The Democrats on the ballot are Julie Johnson, Colin Allred, and Zeeshan Hafeez.

Here is how this race has gone so far:

Julie Johnson, “Women are not a spaceholder for men.”

Colin Allred, “Black leaders in Dallas trust me.”

Neither has talked about policy, nor their voting records in Congress.

And I’m here to tell you, both Johnson and Allred have shit-voting records in Congress. Pro-oil, pro-big business, Republican-lite, and maybe in this district, it’s okay, maybe in this district, that’s what Democrats want.

But the third option, the lesser-known, lesser-funded one, Zeeshan Hafeez, is FAR more progressive than both of them, has pledged not to align himself with foreign powers, corporate interests, or lobbyists, and is the only one in this race who can stand by that claim. We’ll absolutely talk about this race more.

TX34

Democratic incumbent Vicente Gonzalez is the second-most conservative Democrat, behind Henry Cuellar. His primary challenger is Etienne Rosas. We like Etienne Rosas, make sure to check him out.

Don’t ask who “we” is. It’s us.

TX35

It won’t take much for Democrats to flip TX35 in November, less than a +5 overperformance. Silly Republicans think they’re going to capture this seat, but they don’t know 2026 will be the year of the Democrat. 11 Republicans are running for this seat.

The Democrats on the ballot are Whitney Masterson-Moyes, Johnny Garcia, John Lira, and Maureen Galindo.

This district has a blue urban corridor, is majority-minority, is young, and is progressive. Candidates will need to maintain high energy among young voters and renters.

For the primary campaign, look for a candidate who is Progressive but strategic. Someone who can do bold policy and help frontline seats.

TX36

Did you know that Republican incumbent Brian Babin is the biggest liar in Texas? He and Lance Gooden share the title of GOP members who go on TV and randomly just make up nonsense, it’s usually racist or xenophobic.

TX36 is a long shot; it would take a lot to flip this district, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t hit them with everything we have. Target workers and families who are hurt by pollution, low wages, and unsafe conditions. Flipping this district in the long run would require building strong coalitions in labor and environmental justice.

Rhonda Hart and Doug Alan Rogers are the Democrats on the ballot.

The right primary candidate should be pro-union and pro-worker safety, and can stand up to fossil fuel interests without sounding like they want to shut down the region overnight.

TX37

Progressive champion Greg Casar will win this district and head back to Congress, likely to serve as chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus once more. He does have a primary challenger, Esther Amalia De Jesus Fleharty.

TX38

Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria. The overperformance needed here is +12 points, but I think this is one specific district that Republicans drew stupidly. Well, they pulled them all stupidly, but if these area increase their voter turnout by +5 points from 2018, it’s curtains for the GOP.

This was Wesley Hunt’s (R) district, but he’s planning on losing the Republican Senate primary in March. Nine Republicans are vying for this seat.

There are three Democrats on the ballot for this race. Melissa McDonough, Marvalette Hunter, and Theresa Courts.

The path to flipping this district in November is to mobilize non-white and younger residents while peeling off “I’m done with MAGA” suburbanites. Candidates should center schools, property taxes, flood control, insurance, and abortion. We would need to see a strong campaign with sufficient funding to compete in the Houston media market.

In the primary, look for a serious fundraiser with a clear anti-MAGA democracy message. Someone comfortable talking about climate/flooding in practical, local terms.

Now that we’ve walked through a big chunk of the Democratic congressional primaries across Parts Three and Four, here’s the real takeaway:

Not all districts are created equal. Some are safe blue firewalls where the only job is “don’t screw it up.” Some are true frontline pickups where a modest Democratic overperformance flips the seat. Some are wave-dependent. And a handful are long-term East/West Texas projects where the win might not be in 2026, but there’s no telling what Mango Mussolini will do to us between now and November.

And remember, these are just the primaries we talked about. A few Congressional seats don’t have primaries. But the entire point of a primary election is to find the best, strongest, most capable Democrat to kick the Republicans’ ass in November.

The easiest flips in November, as long as we have the best Dems in place in March:

• TX12, TX22, TX23, TX24, TX31

The next tier flips, which will be doable in a wave election but will require real work and discipline. Candidate quality matters more, field matters more, and you need the top of the ticket to be strong.

• TX10, TX21, TX26

These are the more complicated flips, absolutely possible, but under the right conditions. These are the ones where Democrats can win, but only with serious turnout growth in specific communities, plus a national environment that’s punishing Republicans.

• TX05, TX08, TX14, TX27, TX36

If 2026 is the year Texas Democrats overperform, it won’t be because we “believed” hard enough. It’ll be because we worked our butts off for it.

Next, we’re moving on to the Texas House, which, frankly, is where the real bloodsport is and where I’m most excited to dig in.

Because flipping Congress is great, but flipping the Texas Legislature is how you change the whole damn state. Stay tuned.

• February 2, 2026: Last Day to Register to Vote

• February 17, 2026: First Day to Early Vote

• March 3, 2026: Primary Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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