The 2026 Texas Democratic Primaries: Part Five

Fourteen seats between us and reality.

Save the best for last, they always say. Well, I want to tell you a little secret. The Texas House races will have a bigger impact on your life than the US Senate race. If we can flip the House, we can save millions from suffering.

This series is getting a little long, so if you’re just joining us and looking for the previous parts, you can find those here:

• Part One

• Part Two

• Part Three

• Part Four

Personally, I think we can flip the House this year. I know I say that every election. But this time, for real. Democrats have been overperforming around the country, and in the special elections in Texas. Plus, the orange one is a hot mess. Let’s not even go there. We only need to flip 14 seats to do it, and we just saw a race in Tennessee where Democrats overperformed by +12 points.

If Democrats in Texas overperformed by +12 points in 2026?

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Right now, we have a whole lot of Republicans, blue state leftists, establishment DC Democrats, and billionaires who would be happy to see Texans not vote once more. Oh yes, it’s that deep.

From the last midterm election:

Of course, people not voting in Texas keeps the Republicans and billionaires in power. And the other two groups, I’ve come to decide, just aren’t anything like Texas Democrats. We’re a whole breed of our own. And the current discourse around the US Senate race has only further proved it.

And look, even The Conscious Lee agrees:

Side note: I tried to get the Houston Progressive Caucus to draft him to run for office. Bun B, too. Maybe next cycle?

There’s just too much going on, and I want to get to it all, but we can’t lose sight of how vital these down-ballot races are. Right now, from every corner of the internet and every channel on TV, it’s Crockett and Talarico, but they’re the shiny object, while these down-ballot races are where power actually shifts, policy actually changes, and people’s daily lives actually get better or worse.

Let’s get into it.

Note: We compare 2026 to past midterms because midterms have lower turnout, older electorates, and more local dynamics than presidential elections. Comparing to 2024 would be misleading, since presidential years bring out millions of voters who won’t show up in 2026.

HD03

Yep, we’re going to go in chronological order, and we got to #3 of 150 before we reached our very first Democratic primary race. This is Cecil Bell’s district in Montgomery County. Yes, we all know Montgomery County is red, and we all know Cecil Bell is a dumb redneck. But, I happen to know the Montgomery County Democratic Party is fighting like hell (if that counts for anything).

The Democrats on the ballot are James Alvarado and Nicole King.

Primary voters should be looking for a candidate who can talk to voters about school funding, rural hospitals, broadband, all without the culture-war brainrot bullshit.

HD07

This is incumbent Republican Jay Dean’s district; he also has a Republican primary challenger.

The Democrats running here are Corby Heath and Fantasha Allen.

The question this far east is always, “Will they vote?” There’s always a possibility. This district contains the cities of Longview and Marshall, and there is certainly opportunity there. There’s also a small town named Jefferson in Marion County with a fascinating history. But mostly it’s going to be an exurban and rural mix.

The right candidate here is going to need to be a coalition builder, someone with a door-knocking program and not just sticking with social media.

HD14

Oh, we can flip this district, especially if we’re talking about that +12 overperformance (mwahahahaha). Of course, if that winds up being just a pipe-dream, the actual target number is +11ish. The Republican incumbent here is Paul Dyson, and in fact, he is related to the famous Dyson family (or so he claims). And just like his namesake, he sucks.

There are two Democrats on the ballot. Janet Dudding and David Kessler.

This area is the Brazos Valley, with lots of smaller cities, as well as Bryan and College Station. The right candidate here needs to have a campus and young-voter plan as well as a message about property taxes and healthcare.

HD17

This is the ol’ hallowed ground of Republican incumbent ‘Confederate Stan’ Gerdes. His whole purpose in government is to assist the South in rising again. Long-time Republican activist Tom Glass is challenging Gerdes again in the Republican primary. This may be his thirteenth or fourteenth run for office.

On the Democratic side, we have Frank Gomez, Mary Elizabeth Klenz, and Robert Salter.

This won’t be an easy district; turning out the base will be critical. Not to say flipping this district is impossible, but it would require more like a +16 overperformance.

HD19

The Republican incumbent, Ellen Troxclair, is a successful entrepreneur and book author who frequently spreads the message about how awful feminism is. She’s a regular old Phyllis Schlafly.

Running in the Democratic primary are Javier Andrade and Kelly Hall.

This district is the outer-metro area of Travis County, where all the exurban growth has been happening. It may wind up being a long-game seat, but I think a winning message here would focus on the cost of living.

HD23

There is no reason in the world I should know so much about the Republican incumbent Terri Leo Wilson’s love life, but Republicans in this area of Texas are HUGE blabbermouths. We’ll leave the gossip for another time, but maybe that’s why Leo Wilson drew in a primary opponent.

The Democrats in this race are Cheryl Lynn Clark and Sean Foley.

This area includes the Gulf Coast, coastal communities in Galveston and Chambers County. Democrats will really need to hone in on who’s credible and who’s at fault in these communities regarding insurance, school funding, and healthcare. Working-class economics will work in this district.

HD25

Let me tell you, Cody Vasut (R) thinks the sun comes up to hear him crow. And that’s why we have two Democrats running against him.

Mike Meadors and J Daggett.

I’m going to tell you something that no one else is talking about. People are sleeping in Brazoria County. It’s not as red as you think, and the Democrats and other grassroots organizations there are working hard to make it not red at all. A +12 Democratic overperformance? It flips.

The right candidate will need to have a strong turnout plan for the fastest-growing precincts.

HD26

Honestly, I don’t know how Ft. Bend has any Republicans at all. I mean, I know gerrymandering is a problem, but turnout has been an issue here the last few cycles, too. Republican incumbent Matt Morgan is a dud. He got elected by talking about conspiracies and his hate of the “others.” But this district can be flipped by a +9-point swing.

Daniel Lee and Eliz Markowitz are the Democrats on the ballot.

But if we want to flip this seat, this cycle, we need a candidate with a multilingual community outreach plan.

HD27

This is Ron Reynolds’ district. It’s a safe blue district, but he is being challenged by Paul Revot (who doesn’t have a website yet).

HD28

We talked a little about Gary ‘Slumlord’ Gates the other day. I had to go back and look, because I wasn’t sure I mentioned, but this district is absolutely flippable. An +11 point swing in November ought to do it. (Come on, Fort Bend. I know you have it in you.)

There are two Democrats on the ballot here. Sandy Ibanez and Kristyna Payton Loundy.

In the primary, look for who has a districtwide canvass plan. Not just endorsements and social media, but it’s going to take a districtwide strategy.

HD30

This may be a harder district, but the Republican incumbent is the stereotypical good ol’ boy Republican type. AJ Louderback really is a walking stereotype. This area is the coastal bend, including the Victoria region, and several other counties.

Crystal Sedillo and David Steves are the Democrats on the ballot here.

Rural healthcare and school funding will be significant issues in this district.

HD37

We are going to flip this in 2026. Yes, we can. Yes, we will. Hopium. Good vibe. And all that jazz. We only need to swing it +5.5 points. And the Republican incumbent Janie Lopez has no clue what she’s doing.

The Democrats running in this Rio Grande Valley district are Oziel “Ozzie” Ochoa, Stephany Bauer, and Esmeralda “Esmi” Cantu-Castle. This is a hot race.

And this is a turnout race, not a persuasion race. Voters should look for candidates who understand relational organizing, Spanish-language communication that isn’t an afterthought, and deep ties to churches, labor, and neighborhood networks. Field wins here. Always.

HD41

Long-time Conservative Democrat Bobby Guerra retires next year. We wish him all the best in his golden year. He’s endorsed Victor ‘Seby’ Haddad, leading to rumors and drama in the local party.

The “alleged” Democrats running are Victor ‘Seby’ Haddad, Julio Salinas, and Eric Holguin. I say alleged, because some of the rumors involve “undercover Republicans.”

There are three Republicans in a primary of their own.

But who actually has a ground game? Voters should look for candidates who can articulate an economic message that lands with working families. A more populist message on wages, healthcare access, and utilities could win here, especially if they can turn out voters who only show up when they feel seen.

HD44

Alan Schoolcraft was a 1980s Texas Republican, then he came back to the House 40 years later as a 1980s Texas Republican. I mean, think Rick Perry, think Tom DeLay. He’s like a relic next to some of the younger podcast-bro Republicans.

The Democrats running are Stephen Schwab and Eric Norman.

Voters should look for someone who can talk about the cost of living, school funding, and infrastructure without writing off rural voters. It would take a +15 point swing to flip this district, so turning out the base is key.

HD47

Vikki Goodwin (D) is running for Lt. Governor and not running for re-election to this House Seat. But two Democrats are fighting for it, Pooja Sethi and Joseph Kopser.

We will talk about this race soon. We will talk about all the Austin races again. I think maybe a lot.

HD48

But HD48 is the one with the most Democrats running. Eight, to be exact.

Gigs Hodges, Daniel Wang, Josh Reyna, Montserrat Garibay, Robin Lerner, Kimmie Ellison, Kathie Tovo, and Sam Slade.

If Austin Democrats want to plant their flag in HD49 and say, “This is the bluest, blueity, blue-most district in Texas,” then I’m thinking maybe whoever wins here should be someone on the left end of the Democratic umbrella. Housing, transit, school funding, the whole nine yards. And whoever wins this seat has to be ready to be a progressive champion.

HD50

Where will James Talarico be at the start of the 90th Legislative Session? Not in this seat. Running to take his place are six Democrats.

Kate Lincoln-Goldfinch, Samantha Lopez Resendez, Jeremy Hendricks, Josh Hash, Nathan Boynton, and William Rannefeld.

In the primary, look for candidates focused on practical governance and maintaining high suburban turnout. This is a safe blue district, but there is still room for growth.

HD56

I love it when I meet my Waco friends at events, because they love to tell me how much Waco has grown, and it’s like a big city now. Republican incumbent Pat Curry may be a city-slicker after all.

The Democrats running in this primary are Ashley Bean Thornton and Janessa Givens.

Flipping this district? How’s McLennon County doing on precinct chairs? Needless to say, it’s a real tall order. That +12 points wouldn’t be enough. This district needs a candidate with real credibility, paired with a strong message on public schools and healthcare. Voters should look for someone serious about fieldwork, not just messaging.

HD59

I really want to be optimistic about every single seat. Maybe some of the districts I round to the nearest number to make it look a little easier for Democrats, but we also need to be realistic. This is one of those districts we need to be realistic about, even though the Republican incumbent, Shelby Slawson, treats her job more like a dating game than as serious business affecting people’s lives.

The Democrats running are Andrew Turner and Ethan Newcomer.

Voters should prioritize candidates focused on voter registration, precinct organization, and year-round presence. Anyone promising a quick flip is selling fantasy.

HD61

This is another seat I feel good about. We can flip this with a +10-point swing, depending on Collin County. Keresa Richardson (R) is the incumbent. We’ll absolutely talk about this race again, but mostly because I can’t wait to regurgitate everything I know about her and her Republican opponent, former House member Fredrick Frazier (he blocked me on Twitter a while back for commenting about how his wife’s shoes matched the shrubbery in a picture… but they did).

The Democrats in this race are Jackie Bescherer and Brittany Black.

This is a classic suburban persuasion seat. Look for a “suburban normal” candidate with fundraising capacity, disciplined messaging on schools and cost of living, and a data-driven targeting plan.

I cannot believe I’m saying this either, but this long-ass series is going into Part Six tomorrow.

We’ve still got 23 Texas House primary races left to talk about, and if nothing else, this is what happens when Democrats actually file candidates everywhere.

So credit where it’s due. Kendall Scudder, our new state party chair, may spend all of next year making me yell into the void about one thing or another, but on this, at least, he got it right. We showed up. We filed. We forced Republicans to play defense rather than run unopposed.

So stick around. Tomorrow we’ll finish Part Six, wrap up the remaining primaries, and then we move on, out of the weeds, into strategy, and toward what it’s actually going to take to flip this House.

Remember to stay hydrated.

• February 2, 2026: Last Day to Register to Vote

• February 17, 2026: First Day to Early Vote

• March 3, 2026: Primary Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Who Will Be On The 2026 Federal Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, YouTube, and Instagram.