The Dummymander's Receipts

What happens when you draw yourself five seats you can't actually hold?

Yesterday, we spoke about some of the bigger fundraisers in the Texas House races. Today, I wanted to look at some of the fundraising numbers in the Congressional races. Yes, the Republicans gave us a dummymander, and they’re going to screw themselves in the long run. But how bad is it right now, and who’s actually raising the money to take advantage of it?

For each district, turnout numbers matter, demographics matter, and like it or not, money matters too. Depending on who you ask, a Congressional campaign has to raise several hundred thousand dollars to be taken seriously. I don’t know what that exact number is, though I’ve asked around and was told anywhere from $300,000 to $500,000.

So, like we did yesterday, I thought it would be fun to look at the DCCC’s target seats, the other seats which may be dummymandered, and some other possible big fundraisers.

The DCCC’s list.

Of all the seats in Texas that may be dummymandered, I find it suspicious that the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) picked the two seats with the most moderate, corporately aligned Democrats running for them. Until I looked on the About Page of the DCCC’s website and saw it was all led by corporate-aligned Democrats.

So, just know, with all of the progressives running for Congress in Texas, not supporting ANY of them was a choice.

The two seats they are supporting:

• TX15

• TX35

Bobby Pulido is running for TX15. He has a lot of star power, he’s super popular, and he’s probably going to win. Republicans were expecting to hold on to the border this year. They won’t. As of 6/30/26, Pulido has raised $2,833,608.15.

Johnny Garcia is running for TX35. Republicans only gave themselves a +4-point cushion in this district, which is 54% Hispanic. With both Trump and Abbott being so far underwater with this voting bloc, in a wave election, it’s probably not going to be enough to cut it. As of 6/30/26, Garcia has raised $923,561.41.

Other seats Republicans could lose.

There’s no guarantee that Democrats will win these seats. The factors that matter include how much Democrats overperform, how far left the Hispanic vote swings, and how much money the candidate raised to make their campaign actually viable.

I am not including the candidates who’ve raised less than $200,000.

Katy Stout Padilla is running for TX23. Republicans only have an +8-point advantage here. This district is 57% Hispanic. And it’s a border district, where Talarico is spending a lot of money to flip back blue (that helps). Also, the Republican candidate is a South Carolina-native and Nazi-sympathizer (not hyperbole) who moved to Texas for the sole purpose of running for Congress. As of 6/30/26, Stout Padilla has raised $470,799.69.

Some longer shots.

If Republicans wind up facing a total bloodbath in November (which I light a candle and pray for daily), perhaps we can flip one or more of the seats below. It’s going to take a bloodbath, and the candidates working their asses off. But it’s worth taking a look at.

Caitlin Rourk is running for TX10. Republicans have an +18-point advantage in this seat, and even though this seat is 63% white, it covers a quarter of Travis County. As of 6/30/26, Rourk has raised $363,958.97.

Kristin Hook is running for TX21. This is a 43% minority district, including 32% Hispanic. Targeting those votes is going to matter a lot for this campaign. Republicans have a +21-point advantage here, so the size of the wave will have to be big, and the Bexar and Hays County portions of this district will really have to show out. As of 6/30/26, Hook has raised $241,265.06.

Kevin Burge is running for TX24. Beth Van Duyne is the incumbent. She’s a literal monster, and Republicans tried to secure her seat with a +20-point advantage. It is going to be a harder seat to win, it’s the whiter, suburban part of DFW, but it’s not entirely impossible. Julie Johnson is threatening to run for this seat in 2028 if Burge doesn’t take it (so, let’s light an extra candle for his win). As of 6/30/26, Burge has raised $209,859.75

Surprising fundraisers.

The previous seats we talked about were “long shots,” but these Democratic candidates are pulling in some big numbers and working hard to flip their districts, and they’re notable enough to talk about.

Shaun Finnie is running for TX02. I don’t recall if we’ve ever discussed Finnie before. He’s an oil and gas guy, coming in with his own money, and he wants to expand the ACA, rather than implement universal healthcare. But that’s still better than the Republican running, which is Steve Toth, the pool boy from New York. Republicans gave themselves a +26-point advantage in this district. However, the demographics of this Harris County district are interesting, 53% Anglo, 26% Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian. As of 6/30/26, Finnie has raised $765,947.65, but he has $2,729,676.76 on hand, due to a $1,961,000 personal loan.

Evan Hunt is running for TX03. This district is genuinely interesting. It’s in Collin County, just like several of the House seats we spoke about yesterday, and Republicans have spent years bending over backward to hold on to districts there, which is why this district has a +22 Republican advantage. However, I don’t think they could have predicted the rapidly shifting demographics in Collin County. Will that impact this race in November? When Republicans drew these maps last year, this district was 58% Anglo, 17% Hispanic, 11% Black, and 11% Asian. As of 6/30/26, Hunt has raised $371,505.53.

Republicans redrew this map to buy themselves five more seats and built themselves five headaches.

That’s what a dummymander does. Perfect for a Legislature full of dummies catering to the whim of the King of Dummies. You can’t manufacture five safe Republican districts from a state that would be blue if it was fair. They already redrew the districts thin, and thinner, and thinner, eventually they will crack.

We know the DCCC is only officially playing offense in two of them, TX15 and TX35, and both candidates are proving them right so far. Bobby Pulido and Johnny Garcia have raised the kind of money that says they’re taking this seriously, and the demographics in both districts say the Republicans who drew this map underestimated exactly how far underwater Trump and Abbott are with Hispanic voters.

We know the “long shot” seats are expensive. It’s going to take a real bloodbath in November to flip any of them. They’re raising real money in seats where six months ago nobody outside their own kitchen table thought they had a shot.

And we know the two “surprising” ones, TX02 and TX03, prove something Republicans really didn’t see coming.

Nothing is a guarantee.

Money doesn’t vote. Turnout does. But candidates who can’t raise money don’t get the chance to find out if turnout breaks their way, and every single person on this list cleared that bar.

Texas Republicans built a map to save themselves. What they actually built was a stress test. We’re about to find out how much weight it can hold.

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