Show Me The Money
Campaign cash, cost per vote, and the war in the Gulf will make Republicans' lives a lot harder.
There are 99 days left until the election, which means it’s really creeping up on us, but once November 3 comes and goes, the next two months will wiz by. Texas’ 90th Legislative Session will convene on January 12, 2027. And the 120th Congressional Session will begin on January 3, 2027.
For those of you who haven’t been following me for two years or longer, I absolutely live for the Legislative Sessions. It’s my Super Bowl season. I watch all 140 days and report back to y’all on what fresh hell the Republicans are putting us through this time, including as many clips as I can.
Last year, I noticed that everyone and their mother had “Legislative Priorities.” Not just the Legislators, but the orgs and the grassroots, and the “policy people.” So, last go around, I said, “Lone Star Left should have Legislative Priorities, too.”
And over the last year or so, we’ve discussed in detail a few of those and why:
Mandating All Cities and Counties change their Election Dates to November
Voting Reform: Repeal SB1, Expand Ballot Access, Automatic and Same-Day Voter Registration, Ban Gerrymandering, and Straight-Ticket Voting. Texas needs its own State’s Voting Rights Act.
This is a short list. Last week, I asked readers, “What did they want to see more of from Lone Star Left?” and the number two answer was, “Policy Discussions.” There are 169 days left until the 90th Legislative Session starts, and together we’ll discuss the whole priority list, piece by piece.
But here is the kicker.
We need to flip 14 House seats.
This year, 2026, we have more opportunity than we have had in many years. It looks really good for us. The caveat is that it doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll flip the State Senate, Lt. Governor, or Governor’s seat. But flipping the House is the first step to taking Texas back.
Will we flip 14 seats?
I think so. But I’m an optimistic person, maybe too optimistic, because I’ve been wrong before. But this time, I’m not the only one betting on Texas.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is sinking $50 million into Texas, with its eyes on holding three seats and flipping 12. They’re also targeting Taylor Rehmet’s SD09.
Texans for Lawsuit Reform (TLR), the granddaddy of Texas oligarch money, is worried about 15 seats.
Privately, through different consultants and data analysts, I’ve seen lists with up to 25 seats that could be vulnerable depending on how big the wave is and how much money candidates earn.
I’ve made a few of these lists myself. And every time I get an email, “But what about this candidate?” 🤷🏻♀️I base it on previous election data.
But another important metric is campaign finance. When Republicans flip House seats, they often do so with seven-figure election cycles. We shouldn’t expect to see that from any Democrats because they’re mostly not beholden to billionaire crooks, but if we’re 99 days out and a candidate has only raised like $300 (on either side of the aisle), that’s probably a good sign they aren’t going to win. Case in point:
What have the DCLL’s Golden 12 already pulled in?
This is based on the last finance report, which ended June 30. The next one ends September 24.
HD34: Stephanie Guerrero Sáenz - $83,563.06
HD37: Oziel “Ozzie” Ochoa JR - $55,814.08
HD52: Chris Jimenez - $134,246.68
HD61: Brittany Black - $34,965.59
HD67: Jordan Wheatley - $41,494.79
HD94: Katie O’Brien Duzan - $143,600.29
HD108: Allison Mitchell - $170,208.19
HD112: Zach Herbert - $230,915.27
HD118: Kristian Carranza - $441,624.10
HD121: Zack Dunn - $153,907.87
HD133: Josh Wallenstein - $308,685.95
HD138: Tyler Smith - $144,040
A few of these seem a little low for “golden” campaigns, but the ones that seem low all have a lot of cash on hand, either due to personal loans or low front-end spending.
What about TLR’s other three seats they were worried about, which weren’t on the golden list? (All of the above were on their list, plus these ⬇️.)
HD20: Matthias J Early - $7,463.71
HD55: Amelia Rabroker - $33,238.18
HD65: Detrick Deburr - $7,077.00
A few other fundraisers, I noticed, may be pulling in higher than their weight:
HD28: Sandy N Ibanez - $56,701.09
HD31: Jennifer “JJ” Dominguez - $46,626.41
HD56: Ashley Thornton - $60,326.08
HD97: Beth Llewellyn McLaughlin - $42,161.77
HD132: Sara McGee - $58,510.94
How much does the money part matter?
Not as much as you think, but also more than you’d like.
Taylor Rehmet won SD09 while getting outraised roughly 6.5 to 1 in the runoff cycle. He won because he had enough money, spent it on the right things, and then did the unglamorous work of actually talking to voters instead of just running ads at them. Democrats are not going to out-fundraise Texans for Lawsuit Reform, Tim Dunn, or Alex Fairly. We are never going to out-fundraise the network of whatever billionaire fascist decides this is the cycle he wants a Senate seat with his name on it.
But “you don’t need the most money” is not the same as “you don’t need money.” That’s a different sentence entirely. Sometimes they need cash.
Here’s what that cash actually buys:
Block-walking programs. Someone has to pay for the canvassing app, the printed walk lists, the gas money, and, for the campaigns that can afford it, actual paid canvassers.
Direct mail costs real money, and you’re not sending one piece. You’re sending several, timed to land right before early voting and right before Election Day.
Digital and text programs aren’t free either. Relational organizing tools, SMS platforms, targeted digital ads to reach the voters who don’t watch TV.
Staff. This is the one people forget. A field director. A comms person.
GOTV in the final two weeks, when turnout operations shift into a completely different gear, and the budget needs to be there to match it.
Now, the cost of a vote. This is the number campaigns actually live and die by. It’s raised dollars divided by the votes it actually takes to win. A candidate in a district that requires 40,000 votes to flip is playing an entirely different financial game than a candidate in a district that requires 15,000. Two campaigns can raise the same amount of money and be in wildly different positions, because one of them is trying to buy a much bigger electorate than the other.
This is why eyeballing a fundraising total doesn’t tell the whole story. $50,000 in a district you need 8,000 votes to flip is a very different story than $50,000 in a district you need 35,000 votes to flip.
Trump just set the entire oil industry on fire.
While I’m focused on elections, I know many of you have your eyes on global news, and all of us have our eyes on our pocketbooks. But Mango Mussolini wants to enrich his heirs and solidify his legacy before he burns in hell, which means escalation with Iran is almost inevitable. That also means food prices will continue to rise, and gas is likely to go back up.
Republicans are unlikely to fix anything in 99 days. In fact, they will probably make it worse.
And I’ve told you before, I can’t see the future. Although I do have a Magic8Ball, it’s not always reliable. Nobody can tell you exactly which seats flip if gas hits five dollars a gallon in October. But we do know that will be ugly for Republicans.
Affordability was already the number one issue in this cycle. Every point that inflation climbs between now and Election Day is a point in our favor, and if prices get worse than they already are, I would not be surprised to see us blow past the Golden 12 and into TLR’s list of fifteen, maybe deeper into that 25-seat list my consultant friends keep quietly passing around.
But a bad environment for Republicans just opens the door. Somebody still has to walk through it.
So how will we know which seats are actually in play, beyond the spreadsheets? Watch the same things I watch. Who’s raising money every single week? Who’s out block-walking on Saturday mornings when it’s already ninety-five degrees at 9 am? Who’s hosting fundraisers two and three times a week instead of coasting on a mailing list? Who’s got a phone bank running daily? That’s the tell. Money matters, but the candidates who win in tough districts are the ones treating every single day between now and November 3 like it’s the only one that counts.
99 days out, candidates should be busting their humps. If they’re not, that tells you everything you need to know about whether they’re serious about winning.
99 days until the November election!
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
Thank you for the update, Michelle! Just shared on bsky. Lotsa interesting info in this one.
I might be Pollyanna but I think Mike Myers could pull a shocker in HD 10.