The Secretary of State’s (SOS) website is starting to report received mail-in ballots. As of this writing, the SOS reports 44,537 mail-in ballots. NBC News Decision Desk is also reporting the mail-in votes cast, and it says 70,024.
And while early voting doesn’t start until Monday, this may be an early indication of how slow we can expect the SOS report to be on election night.
You may have heard earlier this week that there was still a 600,000-applicant backlog in the voter registration process. Texas now says the glitch has been fixed, and we have a record 19 million registered voters. 19,041,684, to be exact.
We need a record midterm, that much we know. Republicans have all lost their minds, and we need immediate checks and balances.
In Texas, what does history tell us about midterm turnout (at the top of the ticket)?
2022: 45% voter turnout = Republicans win by 10 points
2018: 53% voter turnout = Republicans win by 2 points
2014: 33.14% voter turnout = Republicans win by 27 points
Generally, higher voter turnout spells bad news for Republicans, which is why every legislative session they are pushing bills to try to make it harder to vote. We’ll know Monday whether we’re seeing record early-voting turnout, like other states are.
Though, I’d like to err on the side of caution about taking that as a definitive sign for Democrats, since this year Republicans are talking about “Uno-Reverse, early voting isn’t cheating anymore, now vote on day one.”
Another quick look at national numbers:
North Carolina: Democrats lead Republicans by 24.8 points among early voters, compared with D+10.3 at this point in 2022.
Iowa: Only one day into early voting, and Dems are +27.7, compared to +12 on the same day in 2022.
Georgia: First day of early voting was up 40% compared to 2022.
Trump voters in South Texas see Democrats as “a beacon of light.”
NYTimes released a video report yesterday from Texas’s Rio Grande Valley to see how voters felt about the upcoming race. This is an area in which, for years, Conservative Democrats have been pushing the base both to the right and toward disengagement.
In this report, a three-time Trump voter described Democrats right now as “God—a beacon of light.” From the article:
In the RGV counties, which Democrats lost in the last several years, we should expect them all to swing back blue.
In 2027 and going into 2028, it’ll be important for everyone in Texas who cares about getting our Conservative Democrats (like Henry Cuellar and Richard Raymond) elected in the next cycle to support progressive candidates and movements in the RGV, like DSA RGV and Ground Game RGV. But we have lots of time to talk about that.
Right now, Republicans are totally panicking. Not a single statewide Republican incumbent would debate their Democratic opponents. Not one.
Former Speaker Dade Phelan (R) told Texas Monthly the Republicans are freaking out and he expects a blue wave. Here are some of my favorite quotes from Phelan:
“There’s serious concern like I’ve never seen before.”
“We’re just not paying attention to the issues that matter.”
“The 8 to 10 percent of voters in the middle who are going to decide this election, when they hear stuff about boys in girls’ sports, they don’t even know what you’re talking about.”
“When people are spending $1,500, $2,000 a month on health care for their family, and we’re too afraid to even talk about health care, and we’re still talking about defund[ing] the police, which happened six years ago . . . I mean, we’ve got to catch up with the times.”
“People compare this to 2018 [when Beto O’Rourke came within three points of winning a Senate race], but Paxton is nothing like Ted Cruz.”
“Is there almost something inevitable about a party that hasn’t lost in more than thirty years nominating a guy like Bo French, who seems to represent all of the worst instincts of the party’s base?”
“When I’ve seen polls that say 20 percent of Republican voters are seriously thinking about not voting for Paxton, that feels right. It may be high, but it feels right. I went to the football game [in late August] where TCU played North Carolina, in Dublin. I’m on the TCU side, of course, and a lot of Fort Worth people, they’re coming up to me because they recognize me, and they’re like, “I’m skipping the race, or I may actually vote for a Democrat for the first time ever.”
If Republicans in Texas see a 20% collapse of their base, it’s over for them.
In 2022, Abbott beat Beto by 880,000 votes, which is just under 20% of the Republican base. So, if 20% of them had stayed home that year, Beto would have won. Now, combine that with Democrats being over-energized and ready to kick Republicans to the curb, and it’s just not setting up to be a good next few weeks for the GOP.
Listen to these Republicans from Reuters:
Did you hear that one lady? “If Texas turns blue, then I’ll have to move back to Arkansas.” And did you also notice everyone in this video was old and white, in a state where the population is only 38% white? This one-minute video said a lot without saying it.
For many years, Texas has been a destination for overtly political Conservatives, seeking to escape the taxes of wherever they came from. Often, they called themselves “refugees” (especially if they were from California).
In recent years, many of those “refugees” have felt regret and moved back to their home states. Maybe if we finally turn Texas blue, the rest will jump ship, and we can finally have a better state, with healthcare, a working grid, and a government that finally works for the people.
Honestly, I’m giddy.
I’ve been through enough Texas election cycles to know the routine. Usually, around October, I get a sinking feeling. That feeling you have when you know everything is about to fall apart. But this year, I feel really good.
A lot of it has to do with the math and what we’ve been seeing on the ground, but remember the Marist Poll said 66% of Democrats say a campaign has contacted them, compared with 51% of Republicans. Having a Democrat in every seat across the board will really pay off. Texas Democrats are building the wave right here.
The math is there. The doors are getting knocked. All that’s left is the turnout.
17 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
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Phelan said FW Republicans are telling him they are either going to not vote or vote for a Democrat. I want to know what Phelan's reply to them was. Did he validate that? Did he encourage them to vote for Republicans? Or did he encourage them to split their ticket? I am nervous about Republicans voting for Talarico and Rosenthal and then for Abbott and Patrick.
I hope y’all send that old biddy fleeing back to Arkansas. 🌊