Note: After today, I only have space for seven more Meet the Candidate articles. If you haven’t seen your favorite candidate yet, have them reach out directly to schedule. Otherwise, I don’t have anyone else lined up right now.
It’s time for us to talk numbers. As early voting starts rolling in a week from Monday, we’ll all be on the edge of our seats. What do the Day 1 numbers mean? What about Day 2? Texas doesn’t register by party, so what signs should we look for to see whether Democrats are performing well?
We have a baseline.
I looked back at every midterm election for the last 20 years, and the highest turnout Republicans have ever seen is 4.6 million, and the highest turnout Democrats have ever seen is 4.05 million. Both of those happened in 2018. That’s the ceiling.
That’s why not only I, but most data people and strategists, believe Democrats need a turnout of 5,000,000 to flip the state.
Republicans are expecting a depressed turnout this year, so here are their previous turnouts in the last several midterms:
2022: 4.4 million
2018: 4.6 million
So, what would a depressed turnout year look like for the GOP? 4.2 million. Maybe less.
I’m doing some guessing here, but as I go through and explain, it will make more sense why.
The total turnout for both Democrats and Republicans:
2022: 8.1 million
2018: 8.4 million
And if we see an enthusiastic Democratic vote and a depressed Republican vote in 2026, with my estimated numbers above ⬆️, it would be 9.4 million.
What should we look for on Day 1 of EV, Day 2, and so on?
If this wave scenario- the one that the national news and state Democrats have been talking about all year long- actually comes to fruition, what numbers (at a high level) should we all be watching each day?
In the top 30ish counties, especially the blue ones, each day’s early voting (EV) total should be about 25% higher than the daily EV turnout in 2022. That percentage will likely be higher in blue counties and drop the redder a county is.
Of course, I’ll report the numbers as they come in each day, but I’m also sharing the 2022 EV numbers in a Google Doc if you want to follow along.
Here’s the second number to watch. The 30 largest counties cast about 80% of the state’s early vote. Twelve of them went for Biden in 2020: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, Tarrant, El Paso, Fort Bend, Williamson, Hidalgo, Cameron, Hays, and Webb. Each night, add up the early votes in those 12 and divide by the early votes in all 30. That’s the blue share.
If it’s 69% or higher and climbing, we’re almost certainly in a wave. If it sits at 67–68%, it’s an ordinary midterm. Below 67%, Republicans aren’t nearly as depressed as everyone hopes.
Here’s what that looked like before:
Of course, all of it only matters if they were working all along.
How do we tell if they were working? Well, money is one way.
These are the Texas Senate and Texas House seats where Democrats have a real shot at a flip.
If the early vote numbers above start looking like 2018, these races will tip first. We now have the latest fundraising numbers, which we last talked about in July.
Here’s what the Democrats in the seats to watch have raised this cycle, through September 24, next to the Republican they’re running against:
HD118: Kristian Carranza $873K vs. Jorge Borrego $738K
HD112: Zach Herbert $596K vs. Angie Chen Button $1.89M
HD133: Josh Wallenstein $550K vs. Mano DeAyala $1.04M
HD52: Chris Jimenez $489K vs. Caroline Harris Davila $975K
HD94: Katie O’Brien Duzan $421K vs. Cheryl Bean $796K
HD138: Tyler Smith $386K vs. Lacey Hull $986K
HD121: Zack Dunn $351K vs. Marc LaHood $3.10M
HD108: Allison Mitchell $301K vs. Morgan Meyer $1.79M
HD34: Stephanie Guerrero Sáenz $246K vs. Denise Villalobos $992K
HD37: Ozzie Ochoa $154K vs. Janie Lopez $1.50M
HD61: Brittany Black $110K vs. Keresa Richardson $1.09M
HD67: Jordan Wheatley $88K vs. Jeff Leach $1.86M
HD63: Denise Wooten $87K vs. Ben Bumgarner $618K
HD31: JJ Dominguez $79K vs. Ryan Guillen $450K
HD55: Amelia Rabroker $79K vs. Hillary Hickland $391K
Two of these Democrats have more cash in the bank than their Republican counterparts. Carranza has $384K to Borrego’s $23K. O’Brien Duzan has $139K to Bean’s $90K, and Bean owes $155K in loans.
The rest are getting outspent, some of them badly. Leach has raised 21 times what Wheatley has. Lopez has outraised Ochoa 10 to 1 in a district that leans Democratic.
The DLCC’s Golden 12 had raised $1.94 million in July. Now it’s $4.57 million. They raised more in three months than in the 18 months before that.
Other Democrats are also pulling in numbers higher than in previous sessions. Overall, it’s a big year for Texas Democrats, and across the board, they’re pulling in more donations than ever before.
On the Senate side, Taylor Rehmet has pulled in $1.4 million this cycle, and we should expect him to hold on to this seat. He flipped this district blue. And that could mean a lot for the overlapping down-ballot races in Tarrant County.
I’m concerned about the fundraising numbers from the other Senate candidates who are polling better (allegedly) than their Republican counterparts. Their money situation is bad enough that it really isn’t worth talking about, but we may be seeing a test case for how much money really matters.
The numbers say a wave is possible. The money says Democrats are better funded than ever, and the ground game says some of these candidates are going to outwork their bank accounts.
None of it means a damn thing if you don’t vote.
Make a plan to vote.
Pick your day. Early voting runs Monday, October 19 through Friday, October 30. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, and polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Go early.
Find your vote center in the county. Check your county elections office or VoteTexas.gov for locations and hours.
Bring your ID. A Texas driver’s license, Texas personal ID card, Texas Election Identification Certificate, Texas handgun license, U.S. passport, U.S. military ID with photo, or U.S. citizenship certificate with photo.
Vote the whole ballot. Don’t stop at the top.
Bring somebody with you.
We have the numbers. Let’s go prove it.
24 days until the November election!
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
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Michelle, have you seen any stats on first time registrations? This is anecdotal, but I've been at some sort of VR events most days of the week and this year have SO many who are not newly 18 but are registering for the first time. Also, many in that category are Hispanic. I'm wondering if we'll see a larger percentage of the electorate be first time voters.
No facts on Orlando in House D 33?