Note: I’ll only do ten more ‘Meet the Candidate’ articles this election cycle. I’ve either reached out or attempted to reach out to all Legislative and Congressional candidates. If you haven’t seen your candidate yet but want to, we may have missed connecting. Please ask them to reach out to me directly. This series ends November 1.
With only 36 days until November 3, and with everything happening in the world, I’m not going to pretend any of us are okay. I know that you’re tired. We’re all tired. Some days it feels like the whole thing is on fire and we’re standing there holding a Dixie cup of water. But maybe there’s a light at the end of the tunnel.
Saturday, the MSNow event happened in Arlington, and the room was electric. Sunday, Gina Hinojosa took the stage in Arlington fighting a cold. She gave one of the best rallies I’ve attended this cycle. I woke up this Monday morning believing that the future in Texas could be a lot brighter. Of course, we have to flip the state first.
Last week, at TribFest in Austin, we heard from both sides of the aisle about whether the Texas House would flip. Minority leader Representative Gene Wu (D-HD137) said he believed Democrats would flip the Texas House. On the other side, Republican Mitch Little (HD65) said he thought the GOP would maintain control, but he did couple that with urging Paxton to debate Talarico.
Paxton is at a disadvantage in this debate arena. If he doesn’t debate Talarico, he looks like a coward and loses points. If he does debate Talarico, the world will see how awful he is, and he’ll probably lose twice as many points. I would expect a debate NOT to happen.
I happen to agree with Wu on this. We can flip the House. BUT WE HAVE TO SHOW UP. Which 14? Take your pick. There is lots of low-hanging fruit:
But conversations we really haven’t had much of this year are about the Texas Senate.
What about the Texas Senate?
According to the Quorum Report, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick told supporters gathered for a fundraiser upstairs at the Austin Club last week that two of his GOP senators are in tough races and his candidate in Tarrant County is trailing the Democrat.
Senator Charles Schwertner (SD05) leads his race by only 1 point.
Candidate Leigh Wambsganss (SD09) is down 5 points.
Senator Bob Hall (SD02) is down 2 points.
Dennis Paul’s (SD11) race is competitive.
Going into the election, the Senate makeup is 19(R)/12(D). That includes Taylor Rehmet (SD09). Let’s get this out of the way. I expect Rehmet to win re-election on November 3, and for big things to happen across Tarrant County. That won’t change the Senate’s makeup.
Now, let’s do the rest chronologically.
In October 2025, before there was even a candidate for SD02, I said, “If there were a wave election, Bob Hall wouldn’t be safe.” The Republicans hate it when I’m right. And they didn’t count on such a stellar candidate like Keenen Colbert to come along.
The establishment hasn’t been paying attention to Colbert, but I have, and he’s showing up every day, at every event, at every door, and getting out there one handshake, one conversation, one vote at a time. Don’t count this race out. Nothing is a given, but Democrats have a real opportunity here.
Side note: if Keenen Colbert flips SD02, then Chelsey Hockett will likely also flip TX05.
Paul Thomasson, running for SD05 against Charles Schwertner, has many similarities with Talarico. He’s a pastor who favors working for the people, doing for the poor, and opposes handouts to billionaires, the complete opposite of Schwertner.
If Williamson County goes blue, this will give Thomasson a big leg up. If Beto and Talarico’s efforts on college campuses pay off, this district also has Bryan-College Station on the other end. There’s opportunity here as well.
Last, SD11, Shannon Dicely. This is billionaire Mayes Middleton’s seat. He’s leaving to try to buy the Attorney General’s office. Republicans forget. The only reason Middleton ever won any of the seats he ever sat in was that he bought them with his own money. So, I don’t know if it’s fair to say it was ever a “red-red” seat to begin with. We’ll see what happens here.
Those are the four Senate seats that Republicans are worried about. SD02, SD05, SD09, and SD11.
What happens if Democrats take them all?
Then the Texas Senate becomes a 16(R)/15(D) environment.
And we (fingers crossed) flip the House.
Over the last month, most statewide polls have shown candidates within the margin of error.
For the Legislature, there are best- and worst-case scenarios.
The best-case scenario is that we flip both the Lt. Governor and Governor’s offices. The worst-case scenario is that we flip neither.
Either way, we’re still going to have to deal with Republican bullshit in the 90th Legislative Session. However, we may finally see the culture wars end. But that won’t stop them from pushing the favors for their billionaire friends, and some Democrats will be complicit.
With a Democratic House and a 16-15 Senate, all Republican priorities would die.
Does that mean that Texans finally get tax relief, access to healthcare, good public education, and clean air? We’re still going to have the Republicans to fight. They’ll try to kill those things, surely.
So, we’re left with a few speculative questions.
Could the Democrats possibly flip all of those Senate seats and even one more?
If they did, they would flip the Senate. Right now, nobody has that written in the cards. I mean, nobody. We could hope for it, but no other race has the numbers, visibility, or money right now. But who knows how bad Trump will screw up in the next month?
When Democrats take the House, who will become Speaker?
Y’all know my politics are Ana-Maria Rodriguez Ramos for everything! However, I recently spoke with Representative Anchia at an event, and he said he thought if Democrats took control, Senfronia Thompson would probably be best suited.
Representative Thompson, who has been in the Texas House since 1973, has more institutional knowledge than probably every Democrat and Republican elected combined. She may be the best choice.
Who breaks quorum now?
When Democrats finally give access to healthcare to millions of Texans or pass regulations for oil barons to quit poisoning children in brown communities, will Republicans play along, or will they be the ones to walk?
The reality of flipping Texas.
It won’t happen in one election cycle. Republicans didn’t take this state overnight.
But we can start. A 16–15 Senate doesn’t hand us the keys, but it takes them away from Dan Patrick. A flipped House means Republicans have to ask permission. Every seat we take this year is one we defend in 2028 instead of chase.
So yes, I’m tired. You’re tired. The whole thing is still on fire. But this weekend in Arlington, I saw a room full of people holding Dixie cups, and there were a lot more of them than I expected.
Thirty-six days. Show up.
36 days until the November election!
Last Day to Register to Vote: October 5, 2026
First Day of Early Voting: October 19, 2026
Last Day to Apply for Ballot by Mail: October 23, 2026
Last Day of Early Voting: October 30, 2026
Election Day: November 3, 2026
Did you know you can find links to all the previous Meet the Candidate articles on these lists?:
Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.
LoneStarLeft is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Or buy me a coffee.
Follow me on Facebook, TikTok, Threads, Bluesky, YouTube, and Instagram. Or join my Facebook Group.
Please correct me if I’m wrong, an ad against Ms Hinajosa says she voted to raise taxes 40 times. I believe that she was actually voting to approve the money for public schools. Is my understanding correct?