Election Anxiety? Relax. Here’s Why 2024 Could Be Our Year

A breakdown of Texas’s political shift and why Democrats have reason to hope.

There are 32 days until the 2024 election. Like in most elections, I woke up with election anxiety this morning. So, of course, I took it to Twitter.

(I know, I overdid it with the question marks. 🤦🏻‍♀️)

As it turns out, I’m not alone. Dozens of people are stressed out about the upcoming election. Being a Democrat in Texas, it’s easy to understand being nervous during election season.

We thought we would win in 2018. It didn’t happen.

We thought we would win in 2020. It didn’t happen.

We thought we would win in 2022. It didn’t happen.

But what happened was that every single time, we moved the needle. The needle has not been rescinded. It hasn’t gone back. In fact, except for the 2012 election, Democrats have made gains in every presidential election this century. Even though midterms and presidential years are two different animals, we also have moved the needle in midterm years.

Texas will turn blue. It’s only a matter of time.

Maybe this year, maybe in 2026, or perhaps in 2030. The question is now, “When will Texas turn blue?” not “If Texas will turn blue.”

Sometimes, you’ll hear a disassociated lefty say, “Democrats have been saying Texas will turn blue forever, but it never does. I’ve lost faith.”

That’s the wrong attitude to have. Anytime someone says that to me, I respond, “So, are you saying you aren’t going to vote?” Then, I explain to them how many non-voters there are in Texas.

In 2020, Trump won in Texas with only 27.3% of eligible voters voting for him. That means 72.7% of eligible Texas voters did not vote for Trump.

• 47.6% of eligible voters didn’t even vote.

• 21.5% of eligible voters weren’t even registered.

Graph by: Me; Source: Secretary of State

Texas is not a red state. It has been a non-voting state for a long time.

Despite being a non-voting state, having inadequate leadership, and all of the other roadblocks Democrats have incurred in Texas, they’ve made gains.

Looking at the gains Democrats have made over time, you can see that we’ve moved the needle every time.

Graph by: Me; Source: Secretary of State

• In 2004, Republicans beat us by +23 points.

• In 2008, Republicans beat us by +11 points.

• In 2012, Republicans beat us by +15 points.

• In 2016, Republicans beat us by +9 points.

• In 2020, Republicans beat us by +5 points.

Another critical thing to remember about 2020 is that because of COVID-19, Democrats primarily didn’t campaign. There weren’t any rallies or door-knocking. There was lots of phone banking, but that wasn’t enough. Yet, from 2016 to 2020, Democrats moved the needle four points left.

Even when you break these numbers down by the counties and regions, Democrats make gains throughout the state every election.

Source: Adam Carlson

If you have election anxiety, like me, maybe this will help calm your nerves:

Republicans have not been making gains in Texas for over 20 years.

2012, I’m convinced, was a racist backlash against Obama. Any losses in 2012 were gained back, and then some in 2016.

There is no evidence that the Rio Grande Valley is moving right. We recently did a deep dive into the numbers in South Texas, and all of the data points to the voter turnout in the RGV being so low that it’s hard to classify anything as a swing.

Another data point:

• 2004 Republican voters: 4.5 million

• 2020 Republican voters: 5.8 million

They only gained 1.3 million new voters in 20 years.

• 2004 Democratic voters: 2.8 million

• 2020 Democratic voters: 5.2 million

We gained 2.4 million new voters in 20 years.

Our base is growing faster and closing the margins faster.

There are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about 2024.

The energy and the work Democrats are putting in this year is more than I’ve ever seen. There isn’t just one savior candidate, like Beto, putting in all the work while the rest of the Democrats sit by on the sidelines. Nearly every Democrat running for office, in office, and politically active are busting their humps.

• Colin Allred and the Texas Democratic Party have launched “Texas Offence,” a coordinated effort to share data and combine grassroots efforts across the state.

• Bernie Sanders and AOC joined Greg Casar, Lloyd Doggett, and Beto O’Rourke last week for a rally at UT Austin. Check it out:

• Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff held a rally two weeks ago in San Antonio.

• Multiple Democratic candidates running for various offices have quit their jobs and committed to campaigning for 10 to 15 hours every day.

• Ken Paxton and Greg Abbott have been in panic mode for weeks over their internal polling.

• Beto is going all over the state, registering new voters for the upcoming election.

• More than 50% of the Texas Democrats running for the Legislature are on TikTok now (I’ll have to make a spreadsheet soon.)

• The Texas Democratic Party is outraising the Republican Party of Texas.

Texas would flip this year if we went from a 51% voter turnout state to a 55% voter turnout state.

During the 2020 election, 51.63% of eligible votes made it to the polls. Despite that being Texas’s highest voter turnout ever, we still placed #51 among all the states and Washington, DC.

Now, more than ever, it’s up to us to do our part. The Texas Democratic Party is doing the work. The candidates are doing the work. And the grassroots activists are doing the work. But the truth is, none matters if we can’t get people to the polls.

It’s easy to feel overwhelmed or think, “What can I do?” But the answer is simple: Show up. Make sure your friends and family show up. Make sure your community shows up. We don’t need to wait for some magical savior to come along—we are the ones we’ve been waiting for.

Remember, the numbers are on our side. Texas will turn blue if we can increase voter turnout by just a few percentage points. It’s within reach.

Here’s what you can do right now:

• Register new voters in your community by knocking on doors, attending events, or hosting voter registration drives.

• Talk to people. Not everyone knows how to vote, where to vote, or why it’s important. A personal conversation can change that.

• Share information on social media, especially in a digital space where potential voters can be reached. Spread the word about polling locations, deadlines, and how important this election is.

• Volunteer with campaigns. Even if it’s a couple of hours a week, phone banking or text banking can make a big impact.

• Donate, if you can, to help fund these efforts.

We only lose if we give up or sit on the sidelines. This election season, let’s prove that we have the strength, the numbers, and the determination to turn Texas blue.

We’re closer than ever. All we need is for you to take action.

32 days until the election. Early voting starts in 17 days.

This is the anthem: Turn Texas Blue by Eric Hanke:

• October 7: Last day to register to vote.

• October 21: First day to early vote.

• October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.

• November 1: Last day to early vote.

• November 5: Election day!

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