How Important Is Denton County In The 2024 Election?
Could demographic shifts and voter turnout flip Denton County?
Note: Last week, I mentioned that Democrats should have around seven million votes to flip the state. However, over the weekend, I spoke with a high-level operative in the Texas Democratic Party (TDP) who told me that the number is actually closer to six million. While I still think our “safety number” is closer to seven, the TDP has access to data that I don’t, so if they say the number is close to six, I trust them.
This series examines what we should expect in some of Texas’ bigger counties in November and determines the total Democratic vote we should see in this year’s election. The previous installments are at the bottom of this article.
Denton County will be the first county we’ve examined that isn’t on people’s radars for a flip this year. That being said, if we see a depressed Republican turnout while Democrats overperform, Denton County could surprise everyone.
What’s been happening in Denton County?
It feels like I’ve told this same story before, for other counties and Texas as a whole, but over the last two decades, Denton County has moved +17.8 points to the left. As almost everywhere in Texas, Denton County is becoming more urbanized and diverse.
Here is how the Democratic vote and turnout looked in this county over the last six presidential elections:
As this county has grown, Democrats have captured more of the vote and moved left with each election (except for 2012).
Note: Texas Democrats largely stayed home in 2012, the only year Republicans have made gains in this century. (One of these days, we’ll have to do a deep dive into what happened.)
Denton County’s population recently exceeded 1 million, making it the seventh county in Texas with over 1 million residents. Denton is one of the top ten fastest-growing counties in America.
With its population growth, Denton County is also becoming less white.
The reason this is important is because we know how each demographic votes, and in Texas, the majority of Black, Hispanic, and Asian voters vote blue.
The more diverse a county becomes, the bluer it gets.
What should we expect to see from Denton County in the 2024 election?
As of March, 630,984 registered voters were in Denton County, an increase of 65,895 voters since the 2020 election. (We’ll come back to this.)
Delia Parker-Mims, the Denton County Democratic Party Chair, is a friend of mine, and I’ve watched her career as Party Chair closely. She’s been producing numbers that many other county chairs struggle with. For example, Democrats largely stayed home in 2022, and only 11 counties in Texas made Democratic gains from 2018. One of those was Denton County. (The other ten: Kaufman, Comal, Zapata, Ellis, Hays, Williamson, Kendall, Rockwall, Montgomery, and Parker.)
Denton County also had the #1 highest voter registration in 2020. This is why I have a lot of faith in Parker-Mims’s ability to get Democrats to the polls in November.
We compare presidential elections to other presidential elections and midterms to midterms because voter turnout and behavior patterns differ significantly. Presidential elections typically have higher voter turnout and different demographic participation, making it crucial to compare like-to-like to understand trends and predict outcomes accurately.
In 2020, Denton Couty saw a voter turnout of 73.96% (that’s all voters). The gold standard for voter turnout in any county in Texas is 75%+. So, they’re pretty close, and I think Denton County can get to a 75% turnout this year.
Math. That would be 473,000 total voters (Dem, Repub, and 3rd Party) from Denton County. Of course, if Republicans have a depressed turnout year, we could see that number lower, with Democrats taking a higher percentage of the vote.
How much of the vote share can the Denton County Democrats secure?
Here is the change in vote share over the last 20 years.
In each presidential election (except for 2012), Denton County Democrats have increased their vote share by anywhere from +2 to +8 points. Remember, Democrats in Denton County secured 45.15% of the vote in 2020.
The question is: If the Denton County Democratic Party moved +8 points left in 2020 and its total vote share was 45.15%, could it move another +5 points to the left in 2024 and flip the county?
As I said, I don’t think many people are talking about Denton County flipping this year, but I wouldn’t count it out.
If you’re still trying to understand the math, based on the conditions we’ve laid out, Denton County Democrats would need about 236,000 voters to cast a blue vote to flip the county in November.
While that may seem like a big jump from the 2020 turnout, it’s important to remember that Denton County is one of the fastest-growing counties in America.
Betting odds? Given the data and trends discussed, Denton County flipping in the 2024 election is not impossible. If we were to give betting odds, considering the if factors such as historical shifts, voter registration increases, and demographic changes, I’d estimate the odds to be around 2:1. This means that while a flip is not a guaranteed outcome, the momentum and groundwork laid by the Democratic Party make it a viable possibility.
Who’s on the ballot in Denton County?
TX04:
Pat Fallon* (R)
Simon Cardell (D)
TX13:
Ronny Jackson* (R)
TX26:
Brandon Gill (R)
TX32:
Julie Johnson (D)
Darrell Day (R)
SD12
Tan Parker* (R)
Stephanie Draper (D)
SD30
Brent Hagenbuch (R)
Dale Frey (D)
HD57:
Richard Hayes* (R)
Collin Johnson (D)
HD63:
Ben Bumgarner* (R)
Michelle Beckley (D)
HD64:
Andy Hopper (R)
Angela Brewer (D)
HD65:
Mitch Little (R)
Detrick Deburr (D)
HD106:
Jared Patterson* (R)
Hava Johnston (D)
Congressional races.
First and foremost, Representative Julie Johnson will be headed to Congress 🎉 after the election in this safe blue seat (TX32) left open by Colin Allred. While most of DFW is suffering with GOP representation under the Republican’s extreme racial gerrymandering, we are so thankful for our blue seats.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, Congressman Ronny Jackson, notoriously known as Trump’s drug dealer, is running unopposed in TX13. This district is ridiculous, as it covers most of the panhandle, parts of West Texas, and a sliver of Denton County. It’s a +50 Republican stronghold district, so while we wish he weren’t unopposed, it’s not likely a district that will flip soon.
TX04 and TX26 are going to be tricky. Republicans have a +25.9 advantage in TX04 (currently held by Pat Fallon) and an +18.5 advantage in TX26 (currently held by retiring Congressman Michael Burgess).
Both Pat Fallon and Michael Burgess participated in Trump’s attempted coup. Burgess has a local history that involves 3%ers and Texit people. Sure, we’re happy Burgess is leaving. The Republican running to replace him, Brandon Gill, is a far-right Trump sycophant. He’s so far right that you can’t tell if he’s wearing orange lipstick or his lips are just orange.
It’s hard to say what will happen because of the biggest if factor going into this election: How many Republican voters will stay home or switch sides this year? We know there will be some, but how many? 5%? 10%? 30%? If we see a Republican shift by -30%, it’s over for a lot of Republicans. We’ll have to wait and see what happens.
Texas Senate races.
Of course, if the if factors transcend into the state legislature, the same goes for these two races.
SD12 (currently held by Pennsylvania native Tan Parker) bleeds into all four major DFW counties.
Every time I think about Pennsylvania native Tan Parker, I always associate him with this video from a friend of the page, Zach, aka A Concerned Parent In North Texas:
If you aren’t already, follow Zach on Twitter or TikTok. He’s hilarious.
Republicans have a +11.9 advantage in SD12, so flipping this district will be challenging but not impossible. Tan Parker has been a hard-line extremist and unpopular in DFW.
SD30 will also be challenging. This seat will be left open by retiring Republican Drew Springer, who helped Ken Paxton secure an acquittal in the Senate impeachment trial, then grew a consciousness over it afterward. The Republican candidate Brent Hagenbuch has already had plenty of controversy and has been accused of not living in the district. Republicans have a +23.2 advantage in SD30. While most of this district is in Denton County, the rest is in the far north region and encompasses several counties bordering Oklahoma. In some of those counties, there are still sundown towns.
Texas House races.
If I haven’t told you before, I am most excited about the House races in Texas this year. I think Democrats have a good opportunity to flip the House this year. It’s possible that we see something like we saw in 2018 in the Texas House, when 12 House seats flipped. Worst case scenario, we drastically narrow the Republicans’ margins.
In Denton County, I think any of these or multiple seats can flip.
Here are the House races in Denton County:
Here’s the thing about all of the Republican candidates in Denton County: they’re all weirdos.
Every single one of them is pro-vouchers. Vouchers are not popular, and I think most parents understand that they’ll be equated to segregation and the further underfunding of public schools. The pro-voucher position of every House Republican candidate will hurt them. I would expect all of the Democratic candidates to message on this.
Four out of the five Republicans in this district signed the “Contract On Texas.” (Ben Bumgarner, Mitch Little, Richard Hayes, and Andy Hopper) This is an extremely racist effort to remove political power from people of color in Texas. Now that Denton County only has a 54% Anglo population, it should be considered unpopular among voters. This is something there needs to be messaging on.
Both Mitch Little and Andy Hopper have signed the “Abolish Abortion Pledge,” which means they have pledged to introduce and vote favorably to ban IVF, ban certain forms of birth control, and pursue the death penalty for women who obtain abortions, including in cases of rape and incest, even if the person who received an abortion is a minor.
Both Mitch Little and Andy Hopper have signed the “Texit Pledge,” which is also extremely racist. The Texit Pledge is about secession and implementing a far-right autocratic government over the majority of Texas, which is a majority-minority state. Their scheme would remove all human and civil rights protections from the federal government and put us on a path toward a reinstated Jim Crow, or worse.
Every single one of the Republican candidates for the Texas House in Denton County is a far-right extremist with garbage ideology. If the Democratic candidates can get this message out, any or even all of these seats could flip. (“All” is a long shot, but 2024 is a strange year.)
The stakes are incredibly high in Denton County and across Texas this year.
With the right strategy and effective messaging, Democratic candidates can make significant inroads in Denton County, possibly even flipping key districts. The groundwork laid by local leaders and the shifting demographics provides fertile ground for potential victories.
As we approach November, we must focus on mobilizing voters, highlighting the stark contrasts between candidates, and emphasizing the critical issues at play. Every vote will count in what promises to be an unpredictable and pivotal election year.
Vote early, vote often, just vote.
Leading up to the November election, we’re discussing the data in some of the most important counties in the upcoming elections. If you missed the previous installments:
August 19: Last day for write-in candidates to declare their candidacy.
October 7: Last day to register to vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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Thank you for this analysis of Denton County! I have been saying we can flip this county with enough boots on the ground. We HAVE THE VOTES if we can get them to the polls!
I always appreciate your well-researched analysis, Michelle. Thanks!