How Important Is Travis County In The 2024 Election?
Old Blue’s role in securing Texas for Democrats.
Note: I contemplated whether or not to get into the nitty-gritty for Travis County in this election. Travis County is important in every election, but it’s so blue that we can call it “Old Blue.” I didn’t think anyone would be surprised that Travis County is still blue and getting bluer. However, since we’re looking at the data for all the significant counties to determine if we’ll have the votes to flip the state, it would be silly to leave out “Old Blue.”
You can find the previous installments of this series at the bottom of this page. So, let’s get into Travis County and discuss how Old Blue will once again become Old Faithful for Democrats around the state.
Whenever Republicans try to interact with me regarding politics on social media, they almost always accuse me of being from Austin. While most of us know that Texas has many big, blue areas, Austin is synonymous with left—and we love y’all for it.
Over the last few decades, the Democratic vote has grown substantially in Travis County. From 125,000 votes in 2000 to 435,000 votes in 2024.
In addition to the Democratic voter base nearly quadrupling over the last two decades, Democrats in Travis County have moved from having 41% of the vote share to 71%. Once only a tiny blue dot, that blue has spread like wildfire over the last few decades.
Like all other major urban counties in Texas, Travis is now a majority-minority county.
Despite soaring home prices, Travis County continues to see rapid population growth.
This trend will continue, with an expected 1.5 million population by 2030 and as many as 2 million by 2050. By all indications, Travis County will only continue to get bluer over time. Currently, almost 5% of all Texas Democrats live here.
What should we expect to see from Travis County in 2024?
The Travis County Democratic Party is working hard to turn out the vote in November. They are block walking, holding postcard parties, phone banking, and engaging in other fun campaigning activities.
Their voter turnout has been typical in the past, but it was drastically improved in 2020, with 71.21% of registered voters (both sides of the aisle) showing up.
While they didn’t have the highest turnout in Texas in 2020, it wasn’t far from it.
I enjoy this figure in Texas: 71.21% of voters turned out, and 71.62% voted for the Democratic ticket. Old Blue is a faithful Democratic partner in the grand scheme of Texas politics, and for that, we should all be thankful for them.
As of March, Travis County has 890,646 registered voters.
If they got the same turnout and vote share as in 2020, as many as 454,000 Democratic voters could come from Travis County alone.
I think that number is lower than its potential, as they could have as many as 900,000 registered voters by November and see a 75% turnout like Fort Bend and Collin Counties. A best-case scenario could net Democrats as many as 500,000 votes from this county.
Aside from the Travis County Democratic Party, many grassroots groups in Travis County are working on GOTV. Democrats in Travis County seem to have it figured out and have all the right things going for them.
We might see a friendly Democratic rivalry budding in the next few election cycles.
When I say “might see,” do I mean I’ll be egging it on? Possibly. 😈
Nipping at Travis County’s heels for the crown of “Big Blue Bastion” is Dallas County.
Over the last several presidential election cycles, both Travis County and Dallas County have made significant Democratic gains. Eventually, one of them will plateau… maybe.
I would love to see Travis and Dallas Counties fight for that title in future elections. Not only is friendly competition fun, but it could encourage Democratic turnout in both counties, as Travis would want to hold on to their title, and Dallas would want to steal it. Then again, maybe it’s only the political nerds like me who think it would be fun to see two Democratic Parties battle it out for the title of “Bluest Dot.”
Who’s on the ballot this year in Travis County?
Despite being a solid blue county, there are several Republicans in Travis County that need to be voted out due to Republican’s gerrymandering. Luckily for Texas, many of these seats are up for grabs.
Congress.
Congressman Lloyd Doggett (TX37) and Congressman Greg Casar (TX35) are the safe blue seats here. Both are running for re-election and will return to Washington, DC, in January.
Michael McCaul (R-TX10) is in a competitive race with Democrat Theresa Boisseau. While Republicans gave themselves an +18-point advantage after redistricting, McCaul is far from safe. Aside from being a Trump lackey in a year where Trump may lose badly, McCaul has a long history of bad politics. Considering the direction at the top of the ticket, we may see many of Trump’s down-ballot lackeys flounder.
Pete Sessions (R-TX17) is like a pile of dog poo you step on in the grass. No matter how many times you scrape your shoe on the curb, the smell won’t go away. After Sessions was beaten embarrassingly by Colin Allred (D-TX32) in 2019, he just filed for a different Congressional seat. In Texas, you don’t have to live in the district to run for a Congressional seat, and it’s unclear whether Sessions currently lives in his district. Mark Lorenzen is the Democrat running against him. Republicans have a +22-point advantage in this district, so it’ll be an uphill race.
Congressional District 21 (TX21) is a big race many people are watching this year. The Republican incumbent Chip Roy has long been in a race for the bottom of Republican politics. Whether he’s pushing voter suppression tactics or saying he wants to “ethnic cleanse white progressives,” Roy has made himself a top target for Texas Democrats. Dr. Kristin Hook is the Democrat running against him. It’s a +19-point Republican district, but don’t underestimate how much Chip Roy is disliked in his district and beyond.
Texas Senate.
Both Democratic State Senators representing Travis County will be returning to the Capitol in January. Senator Sarah Eckhardt (D-SD14) is running unopposed, and Senator Judith Zaffarini (D-SD21) isn’t up for re-election until 2026.
Senator Donna Campbell (R-SD25) is up for election and had a Democratic Challenger, Dr. Merrie Fox. We could do an entire series about Dr. Campbell’s politics, but here is the best way to sum it up: Donna Campbell is an emergency room physician. She went to school for many years to learn the science of medicine. Yet, here she is saying, “I love your shirt,” to a testifying witness. The shirt said: “The Big Bang Theory Is NOT Science.”
Yeah.
Senator Campbell is vulnerable, but she has $1 million cash on hand, and it will be hard to beat her without a lot of money.
Texas House.
Travis County is lucky to have only one Republican left to represent them in the House. (Dallas County has two, but both could flip in November. 😉)
Ellen Troxclair (R-HD19) is part of the anti-feminist movement, all the while also being an author and business owner.
Troxclair filed a bill during the last session to ban Texas cities from doing any UBI (Universal Basic Income) program. Long-time Lone Star Left readers know that I have been a long-time champion for UBI programs because the data and studies consistently show the long-term benefits of getting people out of poverty and the return on the economy.
Further reading:
Washington Post: Universal Basic Income Has Been Tested Repeatedly. It Works. Will America Ever Embrace It?
Business Insider: Universal basic income is working — even in red states
BlueMarble: Multiple countries have tested a universal basic income – and it works
Troxclair paints us a classic example of why reactionaries shouldn’t be in government. Instead of looking at the data and making an informed decision, she threw up her knee and said, “Money to the poors? That sounds like socialism. Let them eat cake.”
Luckily, her bill didn’t go anywhere. Still, after the drama between Senator Paul Bettencourt and Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo this year, this legislation might resurface in the 89th legislative session.
The point is that after Troxclair filed that bill, I talked trash to her on Twitter about it, and that’s why she blocked me on social media.
Dwain Handley is the Democrat running against Troxclair. It’s a +39-point Republican district, so it’ll be a hard race. But maybe if Donald Trump goes to jail for his New York case in September, Democrats will see something magical in the November election.
There are also city and county positions up for election. I encourage you to look those up if you live in Travis County.
Travis County is a testament to the growing strength of the Democratic Party in Texas.
Its steady shift from a tiny blue dot to a sprawling blue bastion is more than just a local phenomenon—a symbol of what’s possible across the state. As we move closer to the election, the energy in Travis County isn’t just about maintaining its blue status; it’s about pushing the boundaries, setting new records, and showing that even in a state as traditionally red as Texas, change is not just possible but inevitable.
The work being done here is a blueprint for success that can inspire other counties across Texas. With every block walked, postcard sent, and phone call made, Travis County is securing its future and contributing to a broader movement that could reshape Texas politics.
Voter early, vote often, just vote.
Leading up to the November election, we’re discussing the data in some of the most important counties in the upcoming elections. If you missed the previous installments:
August 19: Last day for write-in candidates to declare their candidacy.
October 7: Last day to register to vote.
October 21: First day to early vote.
October 25: Last day to apply for a mail-in ballot.
November 1: Last day to early vote.
November 5: Election day!
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You missed Sam Eppler running against the odious Beth Van Dyne for the terribly gerrymandered CD24! He’s an AWESOME candidate working super hard and smart!!
Lloyd DOGGETT is the longtime Austin congressman. Lloyd AUSTIN is the Secretary of Defense. They are often confused. :)