Redistricting: What To Know, What To Expect, And The GOP's Coup

Texas Republicans want to redraw the rules of democracy. Again.

What are we relying on nowadays? 270toWin? Election Betting? Steve Koernacki? A spit and a prayer? Whatever it is, everyone is saying the same thing. Democrats are expected to retake the United States Congress, at least by a few seats, in 2026. The US Senate is a little trickier. Race to the WH is giving Republicans a 66% chance of retaining the majority right now. The betting odds favor Republicans 71.5%. (Nuance, it’s dropped 10 points in the 6 months Trump has been in office, and there are still 18 months until the 2026 election.)

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Look, you don’t need me to tell you what a fuck-up Trump has been in office. The other day, I made a joke about how Republicans were planning on having a 2026 election. It’s because people have been commenting on my articles on social media, saying, “There isn’t going to be an election in 2026!!” (Sometimes, it’s in all caps. Really, deep breaths can help.)

When Democrats take back Congress in 2026, they will do everything they can to rein him in. Trump can stop that from happening by rigging the game, by taking the largest Republican state and trying to make it even more Republican than it is. Then, maybe Trump can keep control, for now. Then, he’ll figure something else out in 2028, but first, he has to get through 2026.

And that puts Texas squarely at the center of the universe.

Can they legally do this?

It’s America, the government can legally do whatever it wants. (See: Democracy in Chains by Nancy MacLean.)

Texas has broad discretion to redraw its maps anytime, not just post‑census. The Supreme Court reaffirmed in LULAC v. Perry (2006) that mid‑decade redistricting is allowed, so long as it doesn’t breach the Voting Rights Act or the Constitution. But, then:

• Shelby v. Holder gutted sections 4 & 5 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 in 2013, eliminating preclearance.

• Justice Clarence Thomas, who has long had beef with the Voting Rights Act, may now finally have the numbers to do away with it altogether, leaving voting rights in red states to the mercy of Republican governance.

So, that’s hanging in the balance right now, too. It’s almost like National Democrats should have passed the John Lewis Voting Rights Act when they had a chance, but that’s neither here nor there.

Trump’s Department of Justice’s so-called Civil Rights Division (I say so-called, because Trump just fired 70% of this division’s lawyers two months ago) sent Abbott and Paxton a letter stating that these districts are too much based on race (TX09, TX18, TX29, and TX33).

The Texas Tribune pointed this out this week, and I even made a montage video of this a few years ago (it’s long-30 minutes long). But when Senator Joan Huffman (R), the author of this bill, defended this bill all week long as witnesses called it racist, she said over and over, “I drew blind to race.”

Huffman is running for Attorney General in 2026, by the way 🤮.

The lawsuits from the 2021 gerrymandering just made it to federal courts in May. The wheels of justice turn slowly, and a gerrymandering case like this takes four years to get to court, and we still don’t have a verdict yet. That ruling is expected in September.

How is one thing going to impact the other? I don’t know.

Another thing I’d like to point out is that the Trump DOJ identified four “coalition districts.” There are three other “coalition districts” of the same nature that they failed to call out. I’m not going to be the one to name them, either.

Racial gerrymandering = illegal. Partisan gerrymandering = murky.

When Greg Abbott was the Attorney General of Texas, he argued Abbott v. Perez, a redistricting case from 2011, he said, “A jurisdiction may engage in constitutional political gerrymandering, even if it so happens that the most loyal Democrats happen to be Black Democrats and even if the State were conscious of that fact.”

He won that case. And it’s that precedent has been the law of the land since. Republicans know that the outcome of gerrymandering is racialized maps, but they have used the excuse of “just politics” for the last decade to get away with it.

But, now Trump’s DOJ is changing its tune to make an excuse to redraw the maps in a partisan way to fuck America.

Dummymandering.

Texas is 40% Hispanic, 38% non-Hispanic white, 13% Black, and 6% Asian.

The Republican Party is 72% white.

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Maybe you see where I’m going with this, the biggest thing that the Republican Party has going for them in Texas is that Texans don’t vote. The largest voting bloc in Texas is white people over the age of 75. They’ve gerrymandered each district so far that in any given election, if Texans got off their asses and voted like they were Minnesotans (the state with the highest voter turnout), we’d flip everything from Brownsville to El Paso.

A “dummymander” means that the map is already spread so thin as it is. And if Republicans try to give themselves thin majorities in new districts to gain seats, that will mean even thinner holds on previous seats that were already one good turnout election away from flipping.

Basically, when you try to gerrymander to your advantage, it ends up benefiting the opposition. That’s what Republicans are risking with this stunt. And they all know it. But when the orange, naked king says jump…

This could massively backfire on Republicans.

What about blue state redrawing their maps in retaliation?

Apparently, in New York, they aren’t on board. Said, “It sets a bad precedent.” Real team players up in liberal land, I tell you. And nothing solid yet from Gavin Newsom’s team, but to tell you the truth, I think Newsom is a lot more bark than bite.

Maybe there’s still hope they’ll pull through for us, but the blue states that cry about democracy the most are always the ones that seem to want to help save it in red states the least. Maybe they don’t care about us?

Lawsuits will happen.

As the legislature reconvenes on July 21, civil rights groups and Democratic officials are expected to file new lawsuits on the revised maps as soon as they pass. They will likely seek emergency injunctions, arguing the new maps illegally gerrymander minority communities. Courts could pause implementation before the 2026 primaries.

With the 2021 case still looming, that could also impact whatever the outcome of the maps Republicans draw in the special session ends up being. Like with all legal things, the fate of Texas and ultimately America will wind up in the hands of some judge.

Democracy Docket is going to be the go-to for keeping an eye on these upcoming suits.

What about Legislative Democrats? What tools will they have to stop them?

During the special session, there will be considerable public and media pressure. We’re talking all hands on deck. Rallies at the Capitol every day. Protests at Republicans’ homes. High-profile messaging. Press conferences. Floor speeches. Op-eds.

Democrats will need to push for reform provisions in the redistricting bills, even if they lose. They’re going to have to press hard for watchdog hearings and data transparency.

Every single Point Of Order (POO) in their playbook that they can pull out, they need to pull out (i.e., improper bill referral, insufficient notice on the calendar, or violation of single-subject rules).

In 2023, Republicans changed the rules to expel Democrats who break quorum. I’ve had House Democrats tell me that the rule isn’t constitutional, but to me, that seems like a gamble with the judge you wind up with. But I’m not a lawyer.

There are 13 days until the special session starts.

That’s 13 days for pressure to mount, for lawsuits to multiply, for a few Republicans to maybe grow a conscience, or at least some self-preservation instincts. That’s 13 days for Democrats to organize, message, and make clear that the country is watching. Because if Texas falls, America might fall with it.

What happens in Austin won’t stay in Austin. It never does.

So yes, the maps are coming. The lawsuits are coming. The headlines are coming. But so are the people. And there’s still time for chaos, for courage, for a fight worth watching.

• July 25: First day of special session

• August 23: Last day of special session

• November 4: Constitutional/TX18/SD09 Election

• Who Will Be On The 2026 State Ballot?

• Click here to find out what Legislative districts you’re in.

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